Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

Grob109 · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from ProfLogic:

I use all the data the Market creates and that includes overnight and pre-market. A lot of times Resistance or Support is created in those areas and if you dismiss them you are omitting important data. 10833 was the pre-Market HIGH. It was a perfect target to see if a failure was to be created and it was at both 10829 & 10832. Both were clear price/oscillation failures.

I have a friend that trades the AB which is similar. He trades 10 contract lots and adds to the position as the trend expands. When the trend breaks he exits the entire basket. He, like I, do not believe in scaling out of trades but do believe in scaling into them.

I've attached a little longer term YM to show you that the trend is still down but you have a potential multiple divergence bottom setting up which is a warning for a possible reversal. If the divergence disappears so does the reversal.

IT DB

easyrider · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from ProfLogic:

12:29 - 1208.50 S
01:36 - 1204.50 Exit

Eye Dr. Appoint. BBL

Thanks. That was one of them. What about the other one. What was your reason for exiting at 1204.50? That was only a .75 pullback from the low. How did you know that was the bottom? You can get your exact time off your account. Fraction of a minute can make a lot of difference.

PitchBlack · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from BSAM:

Prof.....

Post an entry.

Post your exit.

THEN add in all your commentary, AFTER you post your exit.

Some of us are busy, too.

Posting entry or exit is useless unless you post at 12.29: sold at 1208.5
and at 01.36 bought at 1204.50.

1204.50 was the lowest point at the 1 minute charts of the whole day.
Suspicious or at least a "lucky shot".

nononsense · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from easyrider:

Thanks. That was one of them. What about the other one. What was your reason for exiting at 1204.50? That was only a .75 pullback from the low. How did you know that was the bottom? You can get your exact time off your account. Fraction of a minute can make a lot of difference.

Never heard about "the Trend"?

AAAintheBeltway · Mar 14, 2005

If anyone wants to know what being on the wrong side of a trend feels like, try scrolling through 58 pages of this thread desperately wanting it to end but unwilling to pull the plug because there just might be a nugget here.

I have distilled one rule to guide me in the future. After Oldtrader has made one of his typically insightful posts, there usually is not a lot of meat left on the bone.

NickelScalper · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from AAAintheBeltway:

If anyone wants to know what being on the wrong side of a trend feels like, try scrolling through 58 pages of this thread desperately wanting it to end but unwilling to pull the plug because there just might be a nugget here.

I have distilled one rule to guide me in the future. After Oldtrader has made one of his typically insightful posts, there usually is not a lot of meat left on the bone.

No one can force you to learn.

BSAM · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from spike500:

Posting entry or exit is useless unless you post at 12.29: sold at 1208.5
and at 01.36 bought at 1204.50......

Exactly. This is what I'm suggesting for him to start doing. I wasn't clear in my first post. Thanks.

hank rollins · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from jsp326:

Just curious, do you give some of your exact entries/exits in real time?

all my calls are before the fact. although, calling the market is not my business. i post my trades, since it helps me focus and stick to my system.

profturf · Mar 14, 2005

i believe i have an idea why the good member has trouble trading with the trend. the reason is that in most markets, the trends are illusory. wills of the wisps that existed in the past, designed to lure you into losing big by following it with the big money after making with the small. However, in other markets the reason that the good member has trouble making money with the trend is that there are no trends in it.. the difference between the two markets can be ascertained by use of such things as the serial correaltion coefficient. which for example for the equity index markets for almost all relevant periods and differencing intervals shows such correrelations in the range of -0.03 to -0.12 . as this is my first post, let me say i am most impressed with some of the insites on this list which i saw in the course of trying to find out an exact definition for the roll date. i am a humble speculator who likes to count to gain a rudder for my trades. and my handle is in honor of the great professional turf man, robert bacon, who found like one or your insiteful members that just because you make money in baktesting some system, you can't do it in practice... the tie in between turf handicapping and markets.... profturf.

Walther · Mar 14, 2005

Quote from NickelScalper:

The up or down slope of price on a chart is an effect that does not describe its cause.

'''''' Yes, it does !! """"

That is why you can't predict if the cause of an existing "trend" will continue in the future just by looking at effects on the chart.

""""" I can care less about cause, all I care about where will be the next reversal. Up or down it does not matter. When the time of predicted trend reversal comes, other indicators will tell me direction of trade ''''''''''

Once a reversal has been established, its chart doesn't reveal how far the new "trend" will continue.

'''''''If by ''how far the new trend will continue '' you mean price you are correct """""