Why Can't I Trade with the Trend

[ProfLogic]

Quote from easyrider:

What harm is there is posting your entries after the fact? Have you made any trades this morning? I shorted ym at 10814 at 9:59:57and took a two tick loss then went long at 10817 at 10:31:29 and was stopped out on a trailing stop at 10822. See. its easy. Im just trying to get some idea of where your coming from.

Looked at your trades. First, I don't like the YM for it's lack of liquidity but that is a personal choice. There was no News out today to add any volume to the Market so it would be a good day to play golf. I'm never in a rush to trade, better to look for a perfect set-up.
Your first trade was a little late off the failure of 108333 @ 10832. The second, in the opposite direction, was telling me you take bot sides of the trend. It's safer to trade in the trend instead of against it.

 

[growltiger]

Quote from WAEL012000:

I usually do not care if the position that I take will end up to be a trend for I usually exit based on specific profit targets that ideally corresponds with either the price and volume chart or the median on the "channel linear regression."

Yup. Enter at an extreme, exit at the mean (or something like that). Forget about the money that someone else might make by holding the position in an attempt to reach the extreme opposite end of the (admittedly ill-defined) price distribution.

 

[easyrider]

Quote from ProfLogic:

Looked at your trades. First, I don't like the YM for it's lack of liquidity but that is a personal choice. There was no News out today to add any volume to the Market so it would be a good day to play golf. I'm never in a rush to trade, better to look for a perfect set-up.
Your first trade was a little late off the failure of 108333 @ 10832. The second, in the opposite direction, was telling me you take bot sides of the trend. It's safer to trade in the trend instead of against it.

Ive found that I get slightly better moves out of YM. Taking bo's of the opening range (I took ym long when es broke out) has worked pretty well for me. This morning it fizzled but thats the way it goes. I consider the previous days range but thats as far back as I need to go as far as trend goes. Different strokes......Maybe some day I will approach the lofty 80% plus range you hang out in.

How many contracts do you trade at a time for YM liquidity to be a problem for you? Where are you getting the 10833 number frrom?

 

[hank rollins]

Quote from easyrider:

Prof

How about posting some charts with your actual trade entries and exits.

perhaps before the trade happens.... on the hard right edge.


his method is untestable, unproven and exists in the past only.


he could easily prove his system by gathering past data on a stock, performing a walk forward analysis, and demonstrating same. he simply cant do it.


another holy grail promotor bites the dust.

 

[BSAM]

Quote from easyrider:

Hes hard to pin down for sure.

Must be a reason why.:eek:


Got to respect someone like Brandon Frederickson who occasionally has the guts to come on here and make some calls. (Nope; don't know him / don't subscribe to any of his services.)

 

[jsp326]

He may not have given a precise entry point/time, but he did say this:
"Right now I'm watching the 1209.75 top. If it fails to breach I'll short to challenge 1202.50. If it breaches, I wait till the failure of support to go long."

Soon after he wrote this the ES challenged 1209.75 and failed to breach it. If he took his short, it looks like he had a pretty good trade.

Just curious, do you give some of your exact entries/exits in real time?

Quote from hank rollins:

perhaps before the trade happens.... on the hard right edge.


his method is untestable, unproven and exists in the past only.


he could easily prove his system by gathering past data on a stock, performing a walk forward analysis, and demonstrating same. he simply cant do it.


another holy grail promotor bites the dust.

 

[easyrider]

Quote from BSAM:

Must be a reason why.:eek:


Got to respect someone like Brandon Frederickson who occasionally has the guts to come on here and make some calls. (Nope; don't know him / don't subscribe to any of his services.)

Yeah. Theres been a few others, Marketsurfer comes to mind I have no problem with somebody not making live calls UNLESS he/she is trying to prove something like a system. It has to work in real time with real trades or it aint real.

 

[nononsense]

Quote from Equalizer:

Don't give up your day job

No danger. Thanks.

 

[easyrider]

Quote from jsp326:

He may not have given a precise entry point/time, but he did say this:
"Right now I'm watching the 1209.75 top. If it fails to breach I'll short to challenge 1202.50. If it breaches, I wait till the failure of support to go long."

Soon after he wrote this the ES challenged 1209.75 and failed to breach it. If he took his short, it looks like he had a pretty good trade.

Just curious, do you give some of your exact entries/exits in real time?

The problem is he did not say "if it fails to breach I will go short at......."

I would post a few real time if he would but its not something I normally do. I have been in chat rooms and posted real time but it does affect your judgement a bit when you have an audience.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from easyrider:

Ive found that I get slightly better moves out of YM. Taking bo's of the opening range (I took ym long when es broke out) has worked pretty well for me. This morning it fizzled but thats the way it goes. I consider the previous days range but thats as far back as I need to go as far as trend goes. Different strokes......Maybe some day I will approach the lofty 80% plus range you hang out in.

How many contracts do you trade at a time for YM liquidity to be a problem for you? Where are you getting the 10833 number frrom?

I use all the data the Market creates and that includes overnight and pre-market. A lot of times Resistance or Support is created in those areas and if you dismiss them you are omitting important data. 10833 was the pre-Market HIGH. It was a perfect target to see if a failure was to be created and it was at both 10829 & 10832. Both were clear price/oscillation failures.

I have a friend that trades the AB which is similar. He trades 10 contract lots and adds to the position as the trend expands. When the trend breaks he exits the entire basket. He, like I, do not believe in scaling out of trades but do believe in scaling into them.

I've attached a little longer term YM to show you that the trend is still down but you have a potential multiple divergence bottom setting up which is a warning for a possible reversal. If the divergence disappears so does the reversal.