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Valero
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
I just wanted to quote myself here.
This really pisses me off. I was in at 58, and out at just over 66, because of analysts downgrades (not because of the downgrades, but because of the price action because of the downgrades, where Valero fell to $64 last week).
Now, other analysts have upgraded the stock, on the same fundamental argument I had made prior (low P/E, nice ROE/ROI, great P/S ratio). And Valero bounces to over $67 today.
These analyst downgrades/upgrades are so much arbitrary horseshit, but the consequences for a trader can't be ignored.
This really pisses me off. I was in at 58, and out at just over 66, because of analysts downgrades (not because of the downgrades, but because of the price action because of the downgrades, where Valero fell to $64 last week).
Now, other analysts have upgraded the stock, on the same fundamental argument I had made prior (low P/E, nice ROE/ROI, great P/S ratio). And Valero bounces to over $67 today.
These analyst downgrades/upgrades are so much arbitrary horseshit, but the consequences for a trader can't be ignored.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
Trader, I know exactly what you're saying about the frustration of analysts' downgrades.
First, they often times seem to be based on some bare modicum of relevant data or are based on seemingly insignificant events.
Second, we all know that analysts more often get it wrong than right.
Third, the downgrades are often outright arbitrary, such as "the stock is approaching fair valuation based on our previous price target." Oh really?
Fourth, I suspect there are a lot of ulterior motives for downgrades. Paint me cynical, but I can literally imagine institutional firms calling in favors to have stocks 'downgraded' so as to force small block investors out of their positions and allow some hedge fund to consolidate its holdings.
I had a large position in Dow Chemical and began scaling out (foolishly) when Goldman Sachs 'downgraded' it when it was $36.50 last fall.
I made a quick 2pts off the gap
This is exactly what I mean. Now Goldman has an $82 price target? These analyst are all over the place. It will be interesting to see who is right, but I am also suspicious about these convient downgrades.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I just wanted to quote myself here.
This really pisses me off. I was in at 58, and out at just over 66, because of analysts downgrades (not because of the downgrades, but because of the price action because of the downgrades, where Valero fell to $64 last week).
Now, other analysts have upgraded the stock, on the same fundamental argument I had made prior (low P/E, nice ROE/ROI, great P/S ratio). And Valero bounces to over $67 today.
These analyst downgrades/upgrades are so much arbitrary horseshit, but the consequences for a trader can't be ignored.
Quoting myself here because of the fact that VLO is NOW ALMOST AT $73!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's a 6 point run in a week.
I decided to hang onto my Valero June 65 calls, thinking that Valero may go to 75 or so before the end of the coming week, if there is another decrease in gasoline inventories. I am really curious as to what price targets others on this board see for this stock between now and the end of May.
Seems like 74.68 was the high for this week, then it fell back some. Maybe next week. I think that I will hold on to the June 65 calls til next wednesday or so...see if I can get a little more out of them. Anyone else still holding the underlying?
Quote from Trader7793:
Seems like 74.68 was the high for this week, then it fell back some. Maybe next week. I think that I will hold on to the June 65 calls til next wednesday or so...see if I can get a little more out of them. Anyone else still holding the underlying?
Call me wild and crazy, but I really like the JUN 70 Puts @ 1.40 for next week. I just don't see everyone continuing to chase prices on Monday, both in VLO and the Dow, S&P, etc. A 5% downside correction in VLO over the next several weeks would be perfectly healthy for a bullish overall stance.
The Valero bounce I believe was fueled strictly by the price of oil. Look at the WTIC spot on stockcharts.com and give me your opinion of where oil might go. I say oil is at a turning point.
Valero was hitting 70 bucks when oil was over 70 dollars a barrel. Then oil came down and VLO fell off the cliff. Now oil is at 61 dollars a barrel and if it goes lower from here then what happens to VLO.
The chart is very bullish for VLO and has every indication of going higher.
However, Im not quite so sure about our friend the oil barrel. Im not sure of the consequences behind a large drop in the price of oil and how that will effect these energy plays. Last summer, the price fell off a cliff from 68 to 48 dollars.
Valero was hitting 70 bucks when oil was over 70 dollars a barrel. Then oil came down and VLO fell off the cliff. Now oil is at 61 dollars a barrel and if it goes lower from here then what happens to VLO.
The chart is very bullish for VLO and has every indication of going higher.
However, Im not quite so sure about our friend the oil barrel. Im not sure of the consequences behind a large drop in the price of oil and how that will effect these energy plays. Last summer, the price fell off a cliff from 68 to 48 dollars.