the pullback i've been waiting for
Valero
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
I think you may be right here.
RBOB is .15 off highs 3 days ago in anticipation of obviously a less bullish report tommorow (and refineries returning back to work).
Now it has room to run up.
If VLO pulls back to he $62-$63 range, and rbob pops, I'll be back in the refinery trade.
<-- in at 65.49 . Lets try this again 
Quote from cashmoney69:
<-- in at 65.49 . Lets try this again
You're flying too close to the sun, on wings made of pastrami (to borrow a Constanza quote).
Seriously though, my initial entry was at $58, and my exit at $66 and some change.
I think with the refinery capacity coming back on line, it would take some significant events to ramp back up to the high 60s or low 70s.
Maybe not, though.
BTU is like that with me.
I have tried to put on a profitable trade two times before with BTU, and am on my 3rd try. Hopefully, the 3rd time will be a charm.
Sandisk is the other one. I never know when that nears a bottom or is about to violently snap back.
I recently made a nice profit in FTO July 30 calls, then got out near the top, but decided to buy Valero June 65 calls during a pullback. I am losing some profits made from the FTO calls now, friday helped turned things around somewhat though. All these analyst downgrades on VLO have definitely worried me, but I decided to keep my VLO June 65 calls at least thru wednesday or thursday of next week. I am just tired of getting out of my positions due to analyst upgrades/downgrades and missing the meat of the move. I understand how more refineries coming back on line can reduce the price of gasoline and if I was trading gasoline futures I would be bearish, but if Valero has a refinery coming back online and can refine more barrels of oil into expected heavy demand shouldn't their profits rise? Otherwise why bring the refineries back online if the resulting drop in gasoline prices outpaces the increased revenues from greater production? It would seem that at some point there should be some slight separation between the price of gasoline and the profits of the refiners, based upon rising consumer demand and increased refining production.
Knowing my luck I will probably get smoked anyways.
Does anyone believe that VLO can make it to 70 in the next few weeks?
Knowing my luck I will probably get smoked anyways.
Does anyone believe that VLO can make it to 70 in the next few weeks?
Trader, I know exactly what you're saying about the frustration of analysts' downgrades.
First, they often times seem to be based on some bare modicum of relevant data or are based on seemingly insignificant events.
Second, we all know that analysts more often get it wrong than right.
Third, the downgrades are often outright arbitrary, such as "the stock is approaching fair valuation based on our previous price target." Oh really?
Fourth, I suspect there are a lot of ulterior motives for downgrades. Paint me cynical, but I can literally imagine institutional firms calling in favors to have stocks 'downgraded' so as to force small block investors out of their positions and allow some hedge fund to consolidate its holdings.
I had a large position in Dow Chemical and began scaling out (foolishly) when Goldman Sachs 'downgraded' it when it was $36.50 last fall.
First, they often times seem to be based on some bare modicum of relevant data or are based on seemingly insignificant events.
Second, we all know that analysts more often get it wrong than right.
Third, the downgrades are often outright arbitrary, such as "the stock is approaching fair valuation based on our previous price target." Oh really?
Fourth, I suspect there are a lot of ulterior motives for downgrades. Paint me cynical, but I can literally imagine institutional firms calling in favors to have stocks 'downgraded' so as to force small block investors out of their positions and allow some hedge fund to consolidate its holdings.
I had a large position in Dow Chemical and began scaling out (foolishly) when Goldman Sachs 'downgraded' it when it was $36.50 last fall.