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Valero
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
I'm still long VLO, and will be for a while, unless something radical happens.
The very worst mistakes I have made in investing have been letting pullbacks scare me out of fundamentally sound positions, whether those pullbacks lasted a day or a week.
Yes, today was painful. But the long term trend is still upward in refiners, both on a valuation and seasonal basis.
A lot of the price action today was due to a smattering of news stories about how refineries are being brought back online, which will increase capacity. Citibank also played odd man out and notched VLO and TSO down to holds, although other analysts remain super bullish on the yet to be seen driving season (what good are analysts anyways).
Oddly, there was a story about how Total SA is experienced record refining margins, today, because of a "bottleneck" in refining capacity.
I entered a long position in ANR today. It's a low P/E producer of coal (sulfuric coal, which has a higher BTU content).
I am on the fence about BHP or FCX. It may be too late. Teck Cominco was on a tear today.
The very worst mistakes I have made in investing have been letting pullbacks scare me out of fundamentally sound positions, whether those pullbacks lasted a day or a week.
Yes, today was painful. But the long term trend is still upward in refiners, both on a valuation and seasonal basis.
A lot of the price action today was due to a smattering of news stories about how refineries are being brought back online, which will increase capacity. Citibank also played odd man out and notched VLO and TSO down to holds, although other analysts remain super bullish on the yet to be seen driving season (what good are analysts anyways).
Oddly, there was a story about how Total SA is experienced record refining margins, today, because of a "bottleneck" in refining capacity.
I entered a long position in ANR today. It's a low P/E producer of coal (sulfuric coal, which has a higher BTU content).
I am on the fence about BHP or FCX. It may be too late. Teck Cominco was on a tear today.
VLO and TSO up in AH.Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I'm still long VLO, and will be for a while, unless something radical happens.
The very worst mistakes I have made in investing have been letting pullbacks scare me out of fundamentally sound positions, whether those pullbacks lasted a day or a week.
Yes, today was painful. But the long term trend is still upward in refiners, both on a valuation and seasonal basis.
A lot of the price action today was due to a smattering of news stories about how refineries are being brought back online, which will increase capacity. Citibank also played odd man out and notched VLO and TSO down to holds, although other analysts remain super bullish on the yet to be seen driving season (what good are analysts anyways).
Oddly, there was a story about how Total SA is experienced record refining margins, today, because of a "bottleneck" in refining capacity.
I entered a long position in ANR today. It's a low P/E producer of coal (sulfuric coal, which has a higher BTU content).
I am on the fence about BHP or FCX. It may be too late. Teck Cominco was on a tear today.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I'm still long VLO, and will be for a while, unless something radical happens.
The very worst mistakes I have made in investing have been letting pullbacks scare me out of fundamentally sound positions, whether those pullbacks lasted a day or a week.
Yes, today was painful. But the long term trend is still upward in refiners, both on a valuation and seasonal basis.
A lot of the price action today was due to a smattering of news stories about how refineries are being brought back online, which will increase capacity. Citibank also played odd man out and notched VLO and TSO down to holds, although other analysts remain super bullish on the yet to be seen driving season (what good are analysts anyways).
Oddly, there was a story about how Total SA is experienced record refining margins, today, because of a "bottleneck" in refining capacity.
I entered a long position in ANR today. It's a low P/E producer of coal (sulfuric coal, which has a higher BTU content).
I am on the fence about BHP or FCX. It may be too late. Teck Cominco was on a tear today.
I'm in APC and I'm also up nice, but I just don't see how refiners should trade at market multiples. If you bullish on VLO you have to be bullish on the economy.
The question I'm going to ask is, when is it time to sell? I've made the same mistake by not holding on a fundamentally sound company (COH).
I think writing cover calls is good way to cover some of your bet. Just my humble opinion.
I'm all out. Can't take the pain of watching this drop $1+ each of the last two days, coupled with all the analysts downgrades, which are moving this.
Booked my profits after exiting at $66.21.
I could have locked in an extra 2 points if I had sold at the peak, but hindsight is 20/20.
Booked my profits after exiting at $66.21.
I could have locked in an extra 2 points if I had sold at the peak, but hindsight is 20/20.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I'm all out. Can't take the pain of watching this drop $1+ each of the last two days, coupled with all the analysts downgrades, which are moving this.
Booked my profits after exiting at $66.21.
I could have locked in an extra 2 points if I had sold at the peak, but hindsight is 20/20.
Good call, take the profits while they are on the table. I missed the run on it and am avoiding oil, gas, any refiners for the time being.
Quote from ByLoSellHi:
I'm all out. Can't take the pain of watching this drop $1+ each of the last two days, coupled with all the analysts downgrades, which are moving this.
Booked my profits after exiting at $66.21.
I could have locked in an extra 2 points if I had sold at the peak, but hindsight is 20/20.
Hi,
You are a successful trader even if you lose money. Because you can change your words. Yesterday you wanted to keep it and today you decide to get out. Being flexible is a key ingredient to sucess. Congratulations.
Thanks everyone. I made $8 a share and some change on VLO.
I was hoping it would go higher, but the headwinds of analyst downgrades went against me, and there was no choice but to bail when it dropped $3 in the last two days.
I am learning valuable lessons here. I think the lesson from this trade is not to try to expect to be able to pick a top, and then hold until it gets there, especially when you see a position crumbling.
Hope is ineffective.
I am also grateful I booked a nice profit on the trade, and am getting comfortable with the notion that any profitable trade is a good one, and greed will destroy a portfolio.
I was hoping it would go higher, but the headwinds of analyst downgrades went against me, and there was no choice but to bail when it dropped $3 in the last two days.
I am learning valuable lessons here. I think the lesson from this trade is not to try to expect to be able to pick a top, and then hold until it gets there, especially when you see a position crumbling.
Hope is ineffective.
I am also grateful I booked a nice profit on the trade, and am getting comfortable with the notion that any profitable trade is a good one, and greed will destroy a portfolio.