The Wallace Trading Method

obviously posts missing, will wait and see if there's any update and whether or not
it screws anything up

haven't been following the market till now

will the 1.3144 be broken ?
lines on my chart indicate 'some' support below 1.3144 , so the next 4H could hit
and rally back up a bit from say the high 20s before today's close

Italian voting 'projections' keep changing so the final 'news' isn't yet available and
as 'exit polls and projections based on the count contradict each other' it's still a
period of 'rumour', and, 'Stefano Fassina of Bersani's leftwing Democratic party is
predicting another election: "The scenario from the projections we have seen so far
suggest there will be no stable government and we would need to return to the
polls." It was unrealistic to imagine a broad coalition between the centre-left and the
centre-right led by Silvio Berlusconi, he told Rai.' - sounds like another Greece

have to go out but may update again before the close
9:40am pst
 
RE-POST
Weekly Update - intro - based on weekly analysis, Saturday February 23, 2013

DX: in a very general sense the US $ sets the pace for some of the other currencies
accept that the price formation between 2008 - 2011 was a base, an inverted H&S
reversal formation, and it's easy to accept the $'s been a Buy since April 2011
beginning in February this year the $ began a new start toward higher highs
first break 82.00 , then, 83 ?

AUSUSD: presuming the aus topped in 2011 , it's all downhill from here
this week the Aus should break the 1.023 level, and either break the more important
level of 1.013 , or pause there

GBPUSD: at the height of the US Civil War in 1864 , it took better than $13.86 to buy
1 Pound, then in 1985 the $ was finally at near par with the Pound - $1.052
after reaching a high in 2007 the Pound's been declining. for several years 1.5272
was a support level one could be fairly confident the price would bounce off and up
from, but this week the price broke thru and closed below it. 1.5064 break 1.49 ???

NZDUSD: is one of those currencies bucking the trend - continuing to rise, but, has
topped. offers a good Sell opportunity since it's early in it's downside
first break, 0.8277 , and depending how fast the drop is, 0.8171

USDCAD: while the $ did an H&$ the C$ futures contract made a double top
so for the spot fx we're looking at the price travelling in the opposite direction - UP
see if it breaks 1.032 , then up to 1.035

USDCHF: the Swissy's just started its next leg up. break 0.934 , then . . .
USDJPY: the question for the Yen buyers is 'how high's the jpy going ?'
in 1982 the jpy reached 278.312 , so it's got a way to go to reach That level again
nearer term, 95.18 and, possible ? hit or break ? 97.25


Analysis for Tuesday February 26, 2013

Full official results are expected by early Tuesday - deadlock
'How Italy's election works': http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/24/us-italy-vote-system-idUSBRE91N05B20130224

I thought it kind of sneaky how the price pricked the 1.38 , rallied, but then dipped
under again and into the gap, then came up to play with that level
I believe we've - the price has a base now and will rally; 1.31 presuming it does so is
the first target. can it get up to the 1.3140/50 area ? 1.3185 ??? but up at least till
the official Italian vote results are out

various US home data, Con Conf down ? Bernanke Senate Banking Comm
4:25pm pst
 
on the Weekly Update I'd neglected to include prices. the following prices are
the Friday Feb 22 Closes via Alpari NY/US MT4 demo, the DXUS$ via Barchart
implied but unstated, the Buy or Sell recommendations are also added

- DXUS$: 81.5850 - Buy
AUSUSD: 1.03182 - Sell
GBPUSD: 1.51595 - Sell
NZDUSD: 0.83775 - Sell
USDCAD: 1.02137 - Buy
USDCHF: 0.92946 - Buy
USDJPY: 93.9630 - Buy

Analysis for Wednesday February 27, 2013

the Italian election, is there a price pause on to see if a coalitions forms ?

yesterday's LL went thru the bottom gl and another gl, but did stop at sdc lines on a
couple of tfs and significant fibo levels. never made it back up to 1.3123 , currently
flirting with the 1.3061, the price appears to some extent to be replicating the price
formation of Jan 3-9 , a correction and base prior to that next rally. one can only
take the 'replication' so far, but, lets work on the basis of a correction formation is
continuing, so, rallies will be small. first target is the gl at 1.3080 ; looking at yester-
day's early 60s bars, could that be the left shoulder of an H&S, and currently the
price is going to . . . replicate a similar formation ? then, decline ?

1.3085 is the significant area to be aware of whilst holding a Buy. if the price contin-
ues higher, 1.3117 is the area to watch how the price reacts ? - interacts and if it's
appearing to travel higher and if it breaks thru - not just penetrates and retreats at
the 1.3123 level it will hit the ml of one of the previously mentioned sdcs, there, it
may stall. but the price breaking thru that level allows for a lot more upside

but, notwithstanding all that, could the price just decline from here ? 1.3050 ! . . .
3:56pm pst
 
Weeks: spur of the moment to do these, portfolio rather than just individual analysis
of the majors and missed including the euro. the jpy trade was wrong from the start
and a couple of the others questionable, but the trades will be held for now thru the
Friday sequester

Analysis for Wednesday February 27, 2013

the price is still holding above the mls after hitting various fibos. believe we've got
some more upside and target 1.3185 , topping ? in H11 ? a correction during this
4H, down to 1.3117 ? 1.3106 ? only to 1.3128? then rally ? could it go to 1.3250 ???

some EU data night session
GDP down ? Claims up ? both 8:30am est

'The Sequester: Absolutely everything you could possibly need to know, in one FAQ'
by Dylan Matthews Feb 27/13
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...g-you-could-possibly-need-to-know-in-one-faq/

I'm thinkng the $ will have another down day, but Fri will see a strong rally, we'll see . . .
3:45pm pst
 
Analysis for Friday March 1 , 2013

$ target levels: 82.20 , 82.50 83.00 . the $ is considered to be the beneficiary of the
sequester. having closed on a line last week it's now thru, up and beyond it, so the
euro 'must' continue to fall

little upside seen for the euro, it's in the gap and may break 1.38 again, but unlikely
to travel much higher, an extreme would be 1.3123
the downside could be large, drop thru several gaps, break 1.29 into the 1.2880s

if you trade more than the currencies, fx, check this info about futures' CFDs
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=260191
4:10pm pst
 
hey SeventhCereal, if you're asking how much money from posting - $0
if you're asking how much money from my trading - NOT ENOUGH !


update:
current gl is at 1.2963 then 1.2915 coincides with a 76 , then a fibo at 1.2882
however, my weekly could go into the 1.26s, not expecting that today, but it's there
happy W E
7:30am pst
 
'ch- ch- ch- changes ~'

I'm extending the list of instruments I analyze and trade, and maybe adding more
and changing my analysis from session to Daily

if one has the capital, it makes a lot of sense to trade a portfolio, and to trade it on
a day to days to weeks basis, far less monitor time for one thing
I continue to day trade the 6E and may post some session analysis, otherwise the
euro analysis will be daily

there's no nzdusd micro contract ??? either trade the full contract or spot
cfds are only available with an fx broker, but not able to be traded in the US
I'm still finding out about cfds, being able to B&H the SPX500 for $607.20 - based
on the current price - compared to the futures margin of $3,850 , makes the cfd a
far more efficient use of margin

don't know how long update analsis will take, will try to post by 4pm PST
from time to time, there may be a post during that session


For Monday March 4/13

- DXUS$: Buy ~ 81.5850 ~ Hold
AUSUSD: Sell ~ 1.03182 ~ Hold
- EURUD: Sell ~ 1.31896 ~ Hold
GBPUSD: Sell ~ 1.51595 ~ Hold
NZDUSD: Sell ~ 0.83775 ~ Hold
USDCAD: Buy ~ 1.02137 ~ Hold
USDCHF: Buy ~ 0.92946 ~ Hold
-USDJPY: Buy ~ 93.4140 ~ Hold
Crude Oil: Sell
- - DJIA: Buy
- - Gold: Wait
NASDAQ: Buy
- - NYSE: Buy
Rus2000: Buy
S&P 500: Buy

6:55pm pst
 
maintenance ! post by 3pm pst tomorrow, and may,
may do an 'early' morning post

some EU stuff but the main announcement will be the NFP at 8:30am est Friday

For Tuesday March 4/13

-- DXUS$: Buy ~ 81.5850 ~ Hold
believe the correction's over, onward to 83
AUSUSD: Sell ~ 1.03182 ~ Hold
- EURUD: Sell ~ 1.31896 ~ Hold
GBPUSD: Sell ~ 1.51595 ~ Hold
NZDUSD: Sell ~ 0.83775 ~ Hold
USDCAD: Buy ~ 1.02137 ~ Hold
USDCHF: Buy ~ 0.92946 ~ Hold
-USDJPY: Buy ~ 93.4140 ~ Hold
Crude Oil: Sell ~ 89.8200 ~ Hold
looking for 84 area
- - - DJIA: Buy ~ 14059.0 ~ Hold
- - - Gold: Sell ~ 1573.69 ~ Hold
careful with this but looking for 1528 area
NASDAQ: Buy ~ 2746.73 ~ Hold
- - NYSE: Buy surprised there's no futures or cfd contract but I'll keep it on the list
Rus2000: Buy ~ 912.000 ~ Hold
S&P 500: Buy ~ 1518.13 ~ Hold

4:40pm pst
 
updates on the DX and EURUSD, otherwise the same


For Wednesday March 6/13

-- DXUS$: Buy ~ 81.5850 ~ Hold
one ? more day of correction

AUSUSD: Sell ~ 1.03182 ~ Hold

- EURUD: Sell ~ 1.31896 ~ Hold
the next 2 days could see the price go to 1.3086 area, maybe 1.31
the price could extend into the 1.31s but if the $'s anything to go by
I don't expect the $ to drop that low in comparison to the euro

GBPUSD: Sell ~ 1.51595 ~ Hold
NZDUSD: Sell ~ 0.83775 ~ Hold
USDCAD: Buy ~ 1.02137 ~ Hold
USDCHF: Buy ~ 0.92946 ~ Hold
-USDJPY: Buy ~ 93.4140 ~ Hold
Crude Oil: Sell ~ 89.8200 ~ Hold
looking for 84 area
- - - DJIA: Buy ~ 14059.0 ~ Hold
- - - Gold: Sell ~ 1573.69 ~ Hold
careful with this but looking for 1528 area
NASDAQ: Buy ~ 2746.73 ~ Hold
- - NYSE: Buy ~ Hold
Rus2000: Buy ~ 912.000 ~ Hold
S&P 500: Buy ~ 1518.13 ~ Hold

3:00pm pst
 
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