The Wallace Trading Method

analysis: so far while the gl has been touched, the price hasn't dropped to the 50
fibo level ten pips below
will the price continue up ? I don't find anything definitive to say yes or no, but for the
present at least will go with an up
next question is if the price is now going to do a retracement, how far might it go ?
1.3565 ? 1.3590 to 1.36 ? into the euros session ?
if the price Is going to drop and continue down, then a rally shouldn't last until the
euros session but perhaps begin the drop during the next 4H bar
it seems to make more sense to hit the 50 Then begin the retracement, except it
may be that lower level in the 1.3440s that's the significant level having had three
days of the price dribbling along it before springing up off it; will that repeat ? —
on Wednesday ? . . .
4:05pm pst
 
i've been surprised by the speed of the price moves and how far the price
has traveled these last two sessions. the price could break down here again but I'm
wondering if it'll go up to 1.3614 - 1.3626 area before turning early or just before the
start of the euros session
it's also possible that the price will, after all that motion just drift up - if that's where
it's going, and not start a decline till Thursday, or maybe in H4 . . .
2:55pm pst
 
analysis: there's 2 interpretations of the price formations todate:
1: a base has formed / is forming
2: the price will continue down
discussion: # 2 is easy, the price will continue down. feeds into the releases later
today, don't know when there'll be an EU Budget announcement, a plunge ? if they
have not come to an agreement, Friday ? Sat, Sun ???
1.3430s , break 1.34 ? should start down soon or in the next 4H
# 1: 2 scenarios: up in a similar formation to Tue/Wed, complex correction over
then begins down, same lows as above
scene 2: goes up to last Fri's H - doesn't make sense

conclusion: too much against # 2
# 1 prevails, price goes Down from here

releases: day 1 of 2 of EU Economic Summit; variations till Thur 14th ECB Monthly
Bulletin. ECB announcement & US Claims 8:30am est
3:00pm pst
 
analysis: I'm thinking the downside won't finish until next week
based on current lines, the price may break into the 1.32s, whether it does that this
session or next week, I'm not sure
yesterday's LL was within pipettes of a cf level, bounced of the outer lrc line and is
progressing down an outer sdc line
there ought to be you'd think a retracement after such a large fall, but Tue LL to
Thur LL was less than 90 pips and in those terms not so large
best I can say is look to the H12 bar/s and see what's going on . . .
4:30pm pst
 
analysis: I expect the price to continue to decline
start down H4 ? H8 ?
week's possible targets: 1.3270 , breaking a line ~ 1.3195 , extreme of 1.3150
Draghi on Tue 10:30am est. Thur: French, German GDP 1:30/2am est and the
ECB Bulletin 4am est, EU Flash GDP 5am est
the decline should end with the release of the EU Parliament budget vote on
Wed ? Thur ? a 'yes' is expected

next week then, the rally should resume . . .
11:25am pst
 
analysis: a toughie. don't have much to contribute here as sideways corrections or
time fillers are a bugger to interpret
the Daily: this session could close up and be the completion of a correction before
declining, which I still expect the price to do; and the price, having had an up day
could also decline from here
how does one choose ? ? ?
G20 Moscow Fri Feb 15 - 16

comment: the 7,490 contracts traded at 8:01am pst - 17,254 for the 5m bar, was
a result ? of the report -
'ECB's Weidmann dismisses talk of intervening to weaken euro'
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/11/ecb-euro-weidmann-idUSF9E8JA01T20130211
a Buy signal from an indi I have on the 1min appeared at 7:55 ; an indi on the 5min
had given a Buy at 7:25, but a Sell appeared on the 7.55 bar, then Buy on the 8:05
the 1m indi will appear then disappear if the price moves the opposite way a couple
of pips but without a new signal appearing, but does signal if the move continues
and new signals can appear at a 2 bar interval
the 5m indi will display an opposite signal on the next bar, at least with the settings
I'm using
and then there's a squawk box ~ free: http://fxknight.talking-forex.com/live.html
once connected there may not be any sound - only the announcer's voice is heard
but not until there's something to be reported. no background music, commercials
or anything else
the speakers' volume is increased because the Englishman's voice is a bit adenoidal
he speaks rapidly. minutes of silence go by during which you~I, forget about the
squawk , , , suddenly a voice scares the crap out of you~me and you~I dump
your~my coffee~tea mug on your~my keyboard hahahahahaaaa ;
but, squawks are after the fact usually, tho it's of interest to know what was said or
done that caused the large B/S order. going to use the squawk for a while and see
how fast the service is, if the reports are before large orders hit the market or if they
are coincidental, and in particular, if they report economic reports before the stated
release time. and overall ? a benefit or a distraction ? ? ?

and by the way: if you're day trading the M6E, if you aren't already doing so I suggest
you keep a 6E 1min with a volume indi visable at all times so you'll catch the large
volume orders coming in to the market. also, and you probably know this already, if
you're using an indi for B/S signals, the M6E may be late since the M6E price tends
to 'stick', doesn't move as quickly as mt fx or the 6E prices . . .
3:15pm pst
 
analysis: once again the price could decline from here, but the 60 closed just under
the 50 rf, suggesting the level will be passed and the price possibly reaching the 61
around 1.3490s, perhaps hitting the gl
if the price were to break thru the gl and continue up it would keep going 'forever'
which is what it may do being as strongly positioned within chls as it is on the D W
M charts
would an EUP Budget 'no' vote cause a price drop ?
even tho the price formation on the 60 between feb 7-12 looks like an upside down
H&S - reversal Up, I'm Still thinking 'downside' . . .
2:30pm pst
 
analysis: not much to say, I think the price is just going to continue to drift down
it could hold around the 1.34 area, but I think it's more likely to drop thru and go on
to the 1.3350s; and there's that major 10 day mass of sideways price data back in
Jan in a band from 1.3380 down to 1.3250 and concentrating along 1.3315 , and
then the band below that, that won't necessarily come into play, but . . .
5:00pm pst
 
analysis: well the upside may top around 1.34s up to 1.3420 . there's a level at
1.3437 which seems a bit high, but who knows. top in H12 ? then close down ?
G20 schedule: http://en.g20russia.ru/information/20130214/781189297.html

comment: German/French gdp releases: "Data is prone to early leaks by news
agencies. Leaks will be reported on the calendar but will be retracted if deemed
incorrect." ForexFactory
the squawk box reported the French/German gdps on the hour, but the Sell orders
were already going in at 22:58pm pst, and then there's the problem of trying to
understand what the guy's saying . . .
2:35pm pst
 
analysis: US holiday and early Globex close at noon ct
in theory I believe a new uptrend begins today. two interpretations: first, the price
drops but closes above the Fri C; second: the price closes down below Fri C and
the rally begins tomorrow

Draghi testifying tomorrow to EU parliament 9:30am est
12:30pm pst
 
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