The Wallace Trading Method

trade: M6E - closed at 1.3305 - + 24 pips less comm - just wanted out
trade: currently stand aside

'I'll just take a nap'
wake up and - 'Fug !' down 48 pips
first mistake opening a trade in noman's land
2 , not taking profit earlier
3 , not entering a 6E Sell in the 1.3360 area

DDW trades shouldn't need babysitting
since it was my first ddw I was drawn to paying attention to it. can't account for the
Tue spike, doubt I'd have 6E traded it if I'd been awake, and might ? have closed the
M6 trade ?
there's definitely 2 trading psychologies involved, at least for me at this early stage
however the small pip value of the M6 - $1.25 compared to the 6E's $12.50 means
there's a whole lot less risk involved, 10 time less in fact based on their $ values

next ? I'm keeping odd hours hence the nap from 6pm to 11:30pm but I don't want
to miss the supposed Buy I'm still staying with at present. I'm thinking the price will
close down this session, a Buy ? can't say yet

the up/down spikes: possibly because of the Germany Zew reports:
Actual Forecast Previous
31.5 . . 12.2 . . . . . 6.9
31.2 . . 14.1 . . . . . 7.6
http://www.forexfactory.com/#closed
 
trade: currently no trade
analysis: last Mon jan 14 HH was in air kissing distance of a 61 - 1.34033 v 1.34041
the price has currently been bouncing off the 23 c fibo. the 38 is at 1.3248 and where
the LC may be going, which breaking that level might invalidate the Buy, however
why not the 50 at 1.32 even
the price should drop this session, better say could drop, but might go to the end of
the week before doing so
one thing tho, as the price rallies again, there's a fibo from a higher tf at 1.3274 . . .

comment: watched 200++ pips go by, finally decided to trade, cable internet, tv and
phone all go down for 20 minutes, back up with tv rocking, net ok, but all down again
for 5 min on the hour. missed the Sell and then a Buy. the previous price action kept
me saying 'what's going on ?', 'what's going on ?' since I couldn't understand it in terms
of my method, although all the HH/LL and the C line were all within the matrix of the
fibo and sdc lines. 'who cares just trade it'. I agree
my basic cell phone is pay-for-use, not loaded all the time but has a prepaid card
ready to load. I could get a second internet via the phone line, or drop my home phone
and use a smart phone which would provide me an mt4 mobile. there may/not be
an nt mobile but http://www.teamviewer.com/en/index.aspx have a free mobile remote
computer control program and see:
http://www.phonearena.com/news/How-...ing-your-iPhone-or-Android-smartphone_id31796
a nap, up about 90 minutes ago, have to get back on a normal sleep-wake routine
5:15pm pst
 
trade: none
analysis: hate these ziggywiggywaggyzaggy corrections, but if you can get hold of
them they can be profitable: fibos: 1.33736 1.33439 1.33256 1.33073 and then that
line at 1.3274 all of which the price was being traded to and between
will update on the weekend, for now, I 'believe' it's a Sell, but, currently 7:10 pm pst
correcting, which 'might', , , go on until the Euros start trading

comment: "Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the
public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result
of trades made by these subscribers." http://www.forexfactory.com/#closed
I was finishing a meal and watching the price decline, then it dumped, dropping 32
pips during minute 23:59 , and 6,081 contracts were traded. at ff's site I discovered
the France PMI reports. at about 00:27 I was thinking a Sell might be a good idea
and maybe collect 20 pips down to the next fibo level; clicked on the Sell button and
a msg to the effect of 'this account is only allowed to liquidate Sell positions' came
up. ???. AMP blocked the trade I'm assuming because the German PMI report was
going to be released soon and there was insufficient margin in my account in their
opinion to make the trade, but more than the $500 dt margin required for the 6E
I wouldn't have lost my ass on the trade had it gone thru but I'd have definitely lost
a cheek - and had to re-fund the account - thanks AMP
this time the range was 31 pips up and 5,746 contracts traded during minute 00:29
would a full-service broker have placed the trade ?
thinking all this thru later, wondered if I'd clicked the Buy button, would the trade've
been accepted . . .
7:15pm pst
 
trade: none

my apologies for the previous incorrect Sell call

analysis: obviously the euro is a Buy and has been for several months
the next target is the 1.3620s . currently the C sits just above an sdc ml drawn from
the July 24/12 L having cleared the 61 . a 122 pip gap starts 20 pips above Fri's HH
from 1.3498 to 1.3620 , and the next gap is 1.3676 to 1.3799
this first gap being as large as it is isn't likely to be travelled thru in one go, and the
76 is in the first 1/3 of the second gap at 1.3726
FOMC announcement is Wed 2:15pm est, nothing new expected, and the NFP on
Fri, which may reflect presumed Christmas layoffs and 'revisions' which may up the
rate; some EU announces that may temporarily react the price
two weeks is enough time for the price to rise 400 pips and clear the gaps, making
the higher target around 1.38+

the open and trade ? well the price could storm up thru the gap, maybe go as high
as 1.3565 say, but, drop or decline first ? to around 1.3445/35 ? then Buy

reminder of where weekend prices can be found:
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD
and that's a thought. spot opens at 2pm, so there may be a gap down when M~6E
opens an hour later, and you know what they say about gaps . . .

comment: well that's a week to forget, except for the lessons learned
I never read anyone's analysis of the euro or other financial instruments for that
matter. so far as I'm concerned, there's only one authority, my charts and analysis
it wasn't an analysis I read but a euro trade someone was making
the trade I believe was based on a fibo level, and I had the same fibo on my chart -
the levels previously reported but, that fibo was for the current wave only, that is the
last three+ weeks
the 'major' fibo covers a much longer period and is the main fibo to currently base
longer term trades on. significant is/was the level at 1.3274 since that was the one
that should have been being considered as the 'correction over' level
thing was, the price never closed on it, only below or above, except
the 2 occassions when the 5 min chart showed closes at 1.32737 and 1.32747
with that last one on the Wednesday Jan 23 17:40 bar - 7:40am pst
it sometimes happens that if one's expecting a close on a fibo level as confirmation
of an 'end', it doesn't occur on any of the higher timeframes and such closes have to
be looked for on the 5 min or even the 1 min chart
did the 5 min 1.3274 close register with me when I mentioned the level in my analysis
on the 23rd ? it did, but . . .

during the whole week I made 2 trades, that one last Tue and one on Fri:
Buy 4 M6E at 1.3452 ~ closed at 1.3467 = 15 pips
at $1.25 per pip x 4 contracts = $5 per pip x 15 pips = $75 less comm of $1.56 x 4
I opened the sub-account with $660 , the M6E 'initial (o/n) margin' of $330 x 2
spot fx for $12,500 at 50:1 leverage is $336.57 , and in Canada at 33:1 it's $509.95
but, futures also have 'day trading margins' which for the M6E is $100 , and is how
I was able to day trade 4 contracts with the account margin I have . . .
1:15pm pst
 
analysis: wasn't till I was looking at the charts during yesterday's open I thought that
the price could drop down to the 61 again at 1.3404
wasn't expecting so much sideways, and not sure what the price is going to do, tho
think it might drop to the 61 this session, and the 60 min did just about close on a
38 yesterday, that fibo's 61 is 1.3398
going to be very boring trading if this sideways is going to go on all week, mind you
one could infer that the price is setting up for a large move - up ?
6:10pm pst
 
analysis: I'm still coming up to speed with these analyses and remiss in not updating
my mt charts as I have my ms charts, discovering besides the gap line there's a
Major fibo level just below the gl, and yesterday's DC was just above it
all things considered and without the details I'll say the price continues higher, but
some correctioning ?
Q4 GDP 8:30am est FOMC 2:15pm est

comment: after what I wrote about fibos and lower closes the other day, you'd think
I'd have clued in to the significance of the 50 fibo level, Not the 61
I sat watching the price rally from the 50 thinking there'd be a reversal and the price
would drop to the 61
by the time the price was going thru previous days' highs I examined the 50 level
Alpari US's demo has the 50 at 1.34138 , and the price's LC was 1.34161 but the LL
right on the 1.34138 , even the NT fibo with a 5 pip difference came in on the 50's
1.3418 LC 1.3419 LL 1.3418
7:30pm pst
 
analysis: the price is currently diddling along a fibo level; another one above that a
few pips above yesterday's HH. wondering if the price will drop down in a correction
or continue rallying. hmmmm, right at the moment, ticking up
revisions for Claims at 8:30

comment: what ffri fear-financial-risk index number are you comfortable trading with ?
initial-o/n margin for 6E is $3,300 , day trade $500 , pip value $12.50 , comm: $4.87
initial-o/n margin for M6E is $330 , day trade $100 , pip value $1.25 , comm: $1.56
if you have $3,300 or more, trade the M6E. if you day trade 10 contracts the comm
cost is $15.60 - 2 pips and you get change, 1 pip for the 6E, not much difference
$12.50 per pip is Very attracting, lose 10 pips and 25% of the 6E day trading margin
is gone, + comm. lose 10 M6E pips and it's 12.5% of the $1,000 day trading margin
+ the comm, but, with margin left over to trade a smaller quantity of contracts
but that 10 pip 6E loss requires adding margin in order to day trade 1 6E again
however rather than starting out big and going small, start out small and as one's
trading skills and profits improve, increase the number of M6E contracts traded and
control the ffr you're comfortable with from the beginning
0 is no contracts traded, 4 on the 0 - 10 ffr index is trading 4 contracts . . .
7:35pm pst
 
analysis: yesterday's high penetrated the higher fibo level but closing below it
I expect overall for the price to decline again for the NFP at 8:30am. a low number
and rise in the rate ?
how low ? drop thru that lower level the price was diddling along ? then Buy since
like that GDP number the NFP is expected to disappoint
but: as I write, the price is rising again, could it continue to rise, perhaps presuming
the numbers will be bad so why wait ? lets rally now ! break that upper gl . . .
3:15pm pst
 
analysis: I'm not sure how profitable it is to compare the DX with the euro, and by
profitable I mean meaningful, but the $ if you follow the chart popped a support
level on Friday and closed above it; the formation of a base ?

not much in the EU/US announcements this week, ECB on Thur 8:30am est, and
'EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday to try to clinch a deal on its
1 trillion euro budget for 2014-2020 after they failed to do so in November.'
so this week should see 5 days of correction until there's a resolved budget report
on . . .
how much downside ? let's look first to see what the price does at the 1.3626 gl to
begin with, into the 1.35s , hold above the 1.350 ? but not I think all this session . . .
11:00am pst
 
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