The Wallace Trading Method

'Analysis: ECB prepared to let Cyprus go, protect others'
by Paul Carrel FRANKFURT | Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:35pm EDT
"(Reuters) - The European Central Bank is prepared to cut off funding to Cyprus and
let the Mediterranean island succumb to financial meltdown if it has to, confident it
has unlimited firepower to protect the rest of the euro zone.
"The subtext is 'we reaffirm that we cannot fund a bank that is insolvent'. You can
also read it as: 'as long as a bank is solvent, we will continue to provide liquidity',"
Moec said.
"If really need be, the euro zone would likely choose to let small Cyprus go and
focus on containing the damage instead of softening the conditions to such an
extent that much bigger countries than Cyprus could be encouraged to reject their
own current bailout terms," said Berenberg Bank's Holger Schmieding."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/20/us-ecb-cyprus-options-idUSBRE92J0VU20130320
Cyprus is a convenient scapegoat to push the euro lower, not that the euro needs
any help. maybe Russia will buy Cyprus

Flash market movers 4-5am est for France, Germany, EU; US datas later

For Thursday March 21/13

I'm expecting the price to continue down; is it possible the price will continue the
uptrend to make a close around 1.2974 ? go as high as 1.2997 ?
could there be a setting-up for another dump ? Very poor Flashes combined with
a No vote to 'plan B' from the Cyprus government ? and Russia won't buy Cyprus ?
4:50pm pst
 
Quote from Wallace:

'Analysis: ECB prepared to let Cyprus go, protect others'
by Paul Carrel FRANKFURT | Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:35pm EDT
"(Reuters) - The European Central Bank is prepared to cut off funding to Cyprus and
let the Mediterranean island succumb to financial meltdown if it has to, confident it
has unlimited firepower to protect the rest of the euro zone.
"The subtext is 'we reaffirm that we cannot fund a bank that is insolvent'. You can
also read it as: 'as long as a bank is solvent, we will continue to provide liquidity',"
Moec said.
"If really need be, the euro zone would likely choose to let small Cyprus go and
focus on containing the damage instead of softening the conditions to such an
extent that much bigger countries than Cyprus could be encouraged to reject their
own current bailout terms," said Berenberg Bank's Holger Schmieding."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/20/us-ecb-cyprus-options-idUSBRE92J0VU20130320
Cyprus is a convenient scapegoat to push the euro lower, not that the euro needs
any help. maybe Russia will buy Cyprus

Flash market movers 4-5am est for France, Germany, EU; US datas later

For Thursday March 21/13

I'm expecting the price to continue down; is it possible the price will continue the
uptrend to make a close around 1.2974 ? go as high as 1.2997 ?
could there be a setting-up for another dump ? Very poor Flashes combined with
a No vote to 'plan B' from the Cyprus government ? and Russia won't buy Cyprus ?
4:50pm pst
More...

I'm with you, and expecting downward price action. I'm short euro all over the place, save the yen.
 
For Friday March 22/13

the euro looks as tho it could fall to 1.2820 and hold there. below that 1.2777 and
below that 1.2679
upside, 1.2915 ? 1.2926 ? back up to 1.2974 ??? seems like a long way up

but this is another difficult move to second guess basing it on if that's legitimate
a Cyprus resolution. they have until Monday close of business to come up with a
plan that's agreeable to the politicians and ECB, and someone Has to bear the
financial brunt for it to happen. I doubt it changes what happens to the euro in the
long term, question is, how does one position for the weekend ?

if it seems worthwhile I'll write an update before the market close
4:50pm pst


I didn't pay attention the other week when trading the cfds, I thought the tick value
was $10 for the SP500 , turns out it's $10 per POINT ! no wonder I thought cfds were
a good deal. to equal the ES tick value the cfd margin would be about $7,200 !
 
For Monday March 25/13

what's delaying Cyprus - the lawyers, tax and financial advisors to the Russian bank
depositors who are also mps and voting whether their clients should lose a wack of
money to bailout Cyprus

the price may well close up on the day but the overall trend is down. I don't think a
resolution retaining Cyprus in the EU would see the price 'close the gap', but you / I
never know. Cyprus has till 'close of business', what time's that ? around mid morn-
ing to noon est if it goes down to the wire

if you want to follow the FT reporter Peter Spielgel's tweets which might be the fast-
est response to what's going on: https://twitter.com/SpiegelPeter - and sounds like
they're now waiting for the Eurogroup approval - progress and looks like the euro's
rallying, maybe the gap will be closed
4:48pm pst
 
For Tuesday March 26/13

all a bit mute isn't it. the price may rise some, may even stay up for a day but it's still
all Down. a bit of support at 1.2814 then what should be stronger support at 1.2775 but
only temporary. upside, 1.2876 , back up to the gap ? 1.2910 ?
4:37pm pst
 
For Wednesday March 27/13

don't know why the price is still hanging around as it is, unless 'they' are waiting for
the Cyprus banks to open Thursday and see , , , what ? believe a Lot of money was
got out of the Cyprus banks since branches ? in London and Russia were open and
electronic transfers were 'facilitated'

think the possibility exist for the euro to get up to the bottom of the chasm, maybe up
to 1.2910 and it could stay up there till Cyprus morning which is 9/6 hours ahead
break and close above 1.2876 first. downside, break 1.2854 and it could continue to
drop - yesterdays' posted levels

and, I'm just wondering about the possibility of a Close Up on the Weekly, have to
get above 1.2987 and possibly 'closing the gap'. 2 sessions to do that . . .
4:31pm pst
 
this weekend the rest of the world catches up with North America and springs its
clocks forward one hour - some brokers' MT 4 fx may open one hour earlier
Friday's a US holiday futures etc, some fx brokers will be open and I may post an
update on Thursday, make that will post an update, EU takes the holiday on Monday

For Thursday March 28/13

this week has seen the $ begin begin or approach breakouts on various tfs, while the
euro continues its decline, although a long way from breakdown, or is it ?
the next level of support for the euro is the 1.26s, specifially a fibo at 1.2680 , and
together with gaps down to 1.2630 above which last November's LL of 1.2660 sits

traders have been expecting the euro to reach the 1.26 , and while there is support
at that level, there's a Lot more downside open to it when a new month begins next
week, on Monday April first, 'all fools day'

upside, 1.2814 ? stays up till the eu session ?

below 1.2680 , 1.2558 , 1.2520 , 1.2435
6:25pm pst — beautiful afternoon for a walk !

MT4: after years of double clicking on objects, discovered:
Menu/Tools/Options/Objects and 'Select object by single mouse click'
 
For Friday March 29/13

not much to say, think today's and Monday's session will in theory be quiet with not
much action. maybe over optimistic, price up to 1.2860-80 ?
5:10pm pst
 
heyyy bayyyyyyyyBEEEE

spring has spRUNG the grass is Rizlad, the cherry blossom trees have exPloDED
into colorfull blooms and the women are in their bikinis, wait a minute wait a minute
that's my imagination there, they're only down to shorts and tops. course I could go
down to English Bay or better yet, Wreck Beach where they'll be ohhhh-nat-u-relllle

I've got to do these weekend updates on Saturday, WAYyy too nice to be inside

For Monday April 1/13

jeeze my head's not into this. well just starting to look at the charts and seeing the
price declining, wondering if it'll stay at this level and rally, or if it could drop to the
1.2777 area, what would it do there ? rally ? it could rally from here

what I've been scenarioing is rally up to1.2860 area and if the euro's going to sell-
off, do it from there beginning Tuesday session since Tue is a tt for me; and I'm
being influenced by my idea that as the EU are on holday today, the drop will wait for
them to be back at work, but, I do have wcs saying down, except the price closing
above 1.2818 today would coincide nicely with tomorrow's tt . . .

I'm going to Have to open Ninja. definitely update Saturdays starting next week -
SUMMERTIME'S ARRIVED bayyyyyyyyBEEEE
4:05pm pst
 
Thursday BoE 7am est ECB 8:30am est. Friday NFP 8:30am est

For Monday April 1/13

the Buy appears to be still on, maybe going up to the 1.290s
the Weekly's sporting a wave and we'll have to wait and see if the price closes up, so
the charts are looking more bullish today than they did yesterday. if the price is going
to stay up for the week, maybe it'll get to the 1.2940-55 area, but I think there may be
a lot of sideways till Friday - subject to revisions . . .
4:32pm pst
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top