The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo

jem said:
1. in general the polls can be worthless this far out. We know this because we have to wait for what Nate Silver calls the herding effect or what I called the unskewing in front of the election.

2. I am sure you realize that when you are predicting a binary outcome say Democrat or Republican... its not too hard to look good after the outcome. Whereas a real test would be something that was close that had lots of candidates.

I remind you...

Nate Silver and so many others were dead wrong.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

.....
Anyway, that’s how things usually work at FiveThirtyEight. But it’s not how it worked for those skeptical forecasts about Trump’s chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Despite the lack of a model, we put his chances in percentage terms on a number of occasions. In order of appearance — I may be missing a couple of instances — we put them at 2 percent (in August), 5 percent (in September), 6 percent (in November), around 7 percent (in early December), and 12 percent to 13 percent (in early January). Then, in mid-January, a couple of things swayed us toward a significantly less skeptical position on Trump.
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Yes Silver screwed up on Trump,but he was right on every state Obama/Romney and right about 49 out of 50 states with Obama /McCain.

Thats why I don't relay on Silver alone.I look at who's winning the most RCP polls,the betting markets and Silver.I was neutral on Trump because Silver said he would lose but the majority of RCP polls had him winning.Bernie was my first choice but my opinion was he would lose because RCP,Silver and the betting markets all had Hillary winning.All three also have Hillary beating Trump.
 
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jem said:
do you think polls are making predictions of the november result are are they just getting a feel for the moment they are taken?

once you answer that question properly you will understand my point about why they don't matter til just before the election.

for instance if the Romney had been in the lead by 5 but the polls were skewed to Obama by 5... at that time... you would have the same results as if the public was close to split at that time.
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I disagree.Most people have their minds made up months before the election. I find the skewed polls stuff to be nonsense.The skewed polls theory and pundits said Romney would win in a landslide.

BTW,who did the jem algo have winning?Obama or Romney?
 
Wait until the debates. If trump doesn't make a splash it could be curtains. The RNC and trump are waiting for the Main event. Trump is a dog. If you think Hillary is going to shine during a live debate with trump , think again.

The dnc rigged and stole the nomination from Bernie. Polls have been changed to show Hillary ahead. Dhs now taking over elections to ensure "security". FBI confirmed several state hacks of election systems. These are all facts.

Democrats will do everything they can to engage in voter fraud and cheating. Hillarys faults haven't been hammered much by trump. And yet trump remains in a statistical tie in many polls.
 
nonsense...always?

do you think a poll that overweights dems by say 10 points... is not going to present a skewed result?

for instance in the Current PPP poll which has hillary up by 5
they have 42 D - 33 R - 26 I

whereas other polls only use 4 more Ds than Rs.

Do you see how the PPP poll might be skewed by the 760,000 dollars a month hillary is paying them? They have a D plus 9 sample.



but if you don't like the word skewed... how about herding?

1. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.

There were roughly two dozen polling firms that issued at least five surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, counting both state and national polls. (Multiple instances of a tracking poll are counted as separate surveys in my analysis, and only likely voter polls are used.)



2. The thread that turned into the algo thread - on the day before the election I stated that proper polls should use the 2008 or the 2010 election as the template.

I then stated that I thought more Is would turnout and they would show the Is were being underweighted. I also said more Rs would turnout than the template.


https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-335
 
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jem said:
nonsense...always?

do you think a poll that overweights dems by say 10 points... is not going to present a skewed result?

but if you don't like the word skewed... how about herding?

1. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.

There were roughly two dozen polling firms that issued at least five surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, counting both state and national polls. (Multiple instances of a tracking poll are counted as separate surveys in my analysis, and only likely voter polls are used.)



2. The thread that turned into the algo thread - on the day before the election I stated that proper polls should use the 2008 or the 2010 election as the template.

I then stated that I thought more Is would turnout and they would show the Is were being underweighted. I also said more Rs would turnout than the template.


https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/romney-looks-like-the-next-pres.240772/page-335
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1.So the 2012 jem algo had Romney winning?

2.Did you make the changes you suggested in 2012 to the 2016 jem algo?

3.The current jem algo has Trump and Clinton tied,correct?
 
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