If RCP polls are so worthless why are they so accurate? Why did the majority of RCP polls show Obama ahead of McCain,Obama ahead of Romney,Hilary ahead of Bernie,Trump ahead of everyone in the GOP primary and on and on and on? Are they really crooked if they're right nearly every time?
The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
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If RCP polls are so worthless why are they so accurate? Why did the majority of RCP polls show Obama ahead of McCain,Obama ahead of Romney,Hilary ahead of Bernie,Trump ahead of everyone in the GOP primary and on and on and on? Are they really crooked if they're right nearly every time?
My team ??? Another example of how some of you think about things. I ran into this a lot when I first started posting on here. And my ace in the hole is this; I am Canadian and don't fit any of these "teams" you obsess about on here. I'm not Democrat or Republican. I've voted for all the major parties in Canada at various points. And I'm not socialist by your definition as you continually claim every time some one questions some of your wackier claims. So your claim of partisanship has no validity at all. Unless you mean the "team" that despises racism and xenophobia, that questions illogical, over cynical theories, and tends to oppose spoken stupidity ( maybe not really worth it, especially on here ).
Look, I don't follow US politics closely. However, my point has some validity, I do remember in Obama's first term a lot of projects were blocked ( I don't care what party blocked what, except I suspect your memory on Obama's first term is flawed, but so be it ). What I am sure about is our health care system works better then yours, and many US politicians blocked tons of proposed reforms leading to Obamacare which was a watered down attempt to get something done appeasing the various politicians and special interest groups. The fact it is apparently failing, or at least highly inefficient according to some American posters on here, is not on Obama at all, any one being objective knows it's a reflection on an American political/business system that is failing to get things done.
I do like our new leader Trudeau because he's down to earth and in tune with today's modern world. I have no idea if his policies are great or not, beyond a 2% tax change that I applaud. In reality, I used to despise the "Liberal" party in Canada, but the main players have moved on and they aren't up Quebec's ass so much anymore afaik. I do think in the unlikely event that Trump gets elected, Trudeau won't roll over in any negotiation with Trump and I think they'd butt heads initially on this.
Hillary + 7
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
Hillary +5
Hillary winning every recent poll except LA Times(The new Rasmuesson)
I think Hillary is up by 5-10 points easily.Obama beat Romney by 4 points and 126 electoral votes and Hillary is doing better now than Obama was at this point in 2012 by nearly every measure.Hillary is winning more polls than Obama was in 2012,Hillary has a higher polling average than Obama had in 2012.Obama's approval ratings are higher now than they were in 2012.Hillary's betting market numbers are 15 points higher than Obama's was in 2012.Hillary is 15 points higher in Nate Silver's model than Obama was.There are fewer white voters now than in 2012,there are more minority voters now then there were in 2012.The economy is better now than 2012.Trump is far more hated than Romney etc,etc, etc.If Obama won by 4 it is very likely Hillary is up 7 to 10 points are more.
i don't think you are getting the point. Democrats controlled Congress for the first 2 years of Obama's presidency. There are no excuses for Obamacare's failures. There is no blaming republicans. Obama did not need any republican votes nor did he get any.
Obamacare was passed without a single republican vote.
hence it could have been shaped anyway the democrats wanted to shape it.
it was not blocked or watered down to get Republican support because it had none.
The democrats were in complete control of Obama's first 2 years. The failures can not be blamed on Republicans. Blaiming others for Obama and the dems failures puts you on their team. IMO.. Now if you are saying you were ignorant of that point... fine. Now you know. Obamacare was passed entirely by democrats. It should have been better... it should have been single payer. But the side you choose to support chose to support the insurance companies instead giving us single payer.
Obama could have done anything he wanted to do for 2 years. The reality is... the democrats and republicans do what their pay masters tell them to do. They don't do legislation the people want... they give us the worst of the left and the worst of the right.
Obamacare was passed without a single republican vote.
hence it could have been shaped anyway the democrats wanted to shape it.
it was not blocked or watered down to get Republican support because it had none.
The democrats were in complete control of Obama's first 2 years. The failures can not be blamed on Republicans. Blaiming others for Obama and the dems failures puts you on their team. IMO.. Now if you are saying you were ignorant of that point... fine. Now you know. Obamacare was passed entirely by democrats. It should have been better... it should have been single payer. But the side you choose to support chose to support the insurance companies instead giving us single payer.
Obama could have done anything he wanted to do for 2 years. The reality is... the democrats and republicans do what their pay masters tell them to do. They don't do legislation the people want... they give us the worst of the left and the worst of the right.
1. in general the polls can be worthless this far out. We know this because we have to wait for what Nate Silver calls the herding effect or what I called the unskewing in front of the election.
2. I am sure you realize that when you are predicting a binary outcome say Democrat or Republican... its not too hard to look good after the outcome. Whereas a real test would be something that was close that had lots of candidates.
I remind you...
Nate Silver and so many others were dead wrong.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
.....
Anyway, that’s how things usually work at FiveThirtyEight. But it’s not how it worked for those skeptical forecasts about Trump’s chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Despite the lack of a model, we put his chances in percentage terms on a number of occasions. In order of appearance — I may be missing a couple of instances — we put them at 2 percent (in August), 5 percent (in September), 6 percent (in November), around 7 percent (in early December), and 12 percent to 13 percent (in early January). Then, in mid-January, a couple of things swayed us toward a significantly less skeptical position on Trump.
2. I am sure you realize that when you are predicting a binary outcome say Democrat or Republican... its not too hard to look good after the outcome. Whereas a real test would be something that was close that had lots of candidates.
I remind you...
Nate Silver and so many others were dead wrong.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
.....
Anyway, that’s how things usually work at FiveThirtyEight. But it’s not how it worked for those skeptical forecasts about Trump’s chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Despite the lack of a model, we put his chances in percentage terms on a number of occasions. In order of appearance — I may be missing a couple of instances — we put them at 2 percent (in August), 5 percent (in September), 6 percent (in November), around 7 percent (in early December), and 12 percent to 13 percent (in early January). Then, in mid-January, a couple of things swayed us toward a significantly less skeptical position on Trump.
I don't really think any of that matters... \
what we really need to see is unskewed state by state polls so we can see how the battle grounds are really shaping up.
Before I would put my money on the line... I would want to know how Trump is doing with the independents in those battle ground states vs how Romney was doing using the same Rvs Dvs I templates as 2012.
If you have that data in statistically relevant amounts... you probably know who is really leading right now.
If Trump is doing better with independents than Romney in the so called battleground states, he is winning at the moment. If he is not... Hillary is.
what we really need to see is unskewed state by state polls so we can see how the battle grounds are really shaping up.
Before I would put my money on the line... I would want to know how Trump is doing with the independents in those battle ground states vs how Romney was doing using the same Rvs Dvs I templates as 2012.
If you have that data in statistically relevant amounts... you probably know who is really leading right now.
If Trump is doing better with independents than Romney in the so called battleground states, he is winning at the moment. If he is not... Hillary is.
do you think polls are making predictions of the november result are are they just getting a feel for the moment they are taken?
once you answer that question properly you will understand my point about why they don't matter til just before the election.
for instance if the Romney had been in the lead by 5 but the polls were skewed to Obama by 5... at that time... you would have the same results as if the public was close to split at that time.
once you answer that question properly you will understand my point about why they don't matter til just before the election.
for instance if the Romney had been in the lead by 5 but the polls were skewed to Obama by 5... at that time... you would have the same results as if the public was close to split at that time.
Obama /Romney this far out
Obama/ McCain this far out.
Doesn't seem worthless to me