The Polls - Is Trump Winning even without the Algo
- Thread starter jem
- Start date
Democrats really might have a shot at taking the House. Here's the math.
I think the Clintons will keep Trump in play until her second term is up. If the Dems don't get the House this year, then maybe Trump will lose it for the Reps in the midterm election.
trump up by 3.4 points
la times poll - which real clear politics seems to only include in their list of poll once in a while.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
la times poll - which real clear politics seems to only include in their list of poll once in a while.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/
1. I don't recall exactly... the point of the algo was to unskew the polls to either the 2010 or the 2012 template. it was not done to predict a winner... as it evolved.
but I do know about a week before the election many polls had Romney winning... then there was the strom and the hug. The polls that came out just before the election swung back towards obama a bit.
2. As I said I have not been able to use the algo much until lately because some of the polls made it a lot harder to figure out what ratio of d vs r vs I they are using.
3. If I could run the algo... I would suspect the algo would have clinton up by a little but inside the margin of error on most of the polls. but that would be on the national vote.
I don't have anywhere close to enough info on the state by state races.
but I do know about a week before the election many polls had Romney winning... then there was the strom and the hug. The polls that came out just before the election swung back towards obama a bit.
2. As I said I have not been able to use the algo much until lately because some of the polls made it a lot harder to figure out what ratio of d vs r vs I they are using.
3. If I could run the algo... I would suspect the algo would have clinton up by a little but inside the margin of error on most of the polls. but that would be on the national vote.
I don't have anywhere close to enough info on the state by state races.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/31/fox-news-poll-trump-narrows-clintons-lead.html
Hillary +6
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7353
Hillary +1
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/30/yougoveconomist-poll-august-27-29-2016/
Hillary +5
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/polls/
Hillary + 5
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
Hillary +7
If polls are skewed they are skewed towards Republicans.RCPs average had Obama + 1 and he won by +4.
My prediction is Hillary will win by more than RCPs average as well.The hug had nothing to do with Obama winning IMO.Obama won by 126 electoral votes.Hugging Christie wouldn't make Obama go from losing to a 127 electoral vote gain.Romney never had a chance imo.The polls,even showing the republican candidate close or losing, give Republicans a bigger hope than they really have.The real challenge for Republicans is the electoral map that begins wth the democrat having 242 electoral votes and the Republican needing 45 % of the Hispanic vote and around 10 -15 % of the Black vote.Thats much harder for republicans to overcome than being down a few points in the polls.
We're not worried Stark. Your bitch has nothing. Globalism is done. Whether we win in November or not, Populism is the new normal. Globalists like the Bush-Clinton-Soros Crime Families are having their last moments in the sun. Soon, an endangered species, politically speaking 
some of those polls overweighted demcrats by 10 to 15 points months before the election... then a few weeks before the election they unskewed. Don't you remember a few weeks out many of the polls had Romney in the lead after they unskewed.
Then Obama outperformed the next few weeks.
Maybe the the polls were off a bit. Maybe the storm and the hug made a difference.
Maybe obama's ground game outperformed Romneys. Maybe the fact Romney let Obama beat him up for months, and then let crowley and obama walk all over him suppressed the vote for him.
The point is the polls almost all went to a reasonable template right before the election.
That is the point of unskewing. Using a template that makes sense. Using democrat or republican rich template is skewed. Polls are not be predicting who will win in a few months they should be telling us how the vote would turn out if the vote were done the day the polls were taken.
Then Obama outperformed the next few weeks.
Maybe the the polls were off a bit. Maybe the storm and the hug made a difference.
Maybe obama's ground game outperformed Romneys. Maybe the fact Romney let Obama beat him up for months, and then let crowley and obama walk all over him suppressed the vote for him.
The point is the polls almost all went to a reasonable template right before the election.
That is the point of unskewing. Using a template that makes sense. Using democrat or republican rich template is skewed. Polls are not be predicting who will win in a few months they should be telling us how the vote would turn out if the vote were done the day the polls were taken.
If polls are skewed they are skewed towards Republicans.RCPs average had Obama + 1 and he won by +4.
My prediction is Hillary will win by more than RCPs average as well.The hug had nothing to do with Obama winning IMO.Obama won by 126 electoral votes.Hugging Christie wouldn't make Obama go from losing to a 127 electoral vote gain.Romney never had a chance imo.The polls,even showing the republican candidate close or losing, give Republicans a bigger hope than they really have.The real challenge for Republicans is the electoral map that begins wth the democrat having 242 electoral votes and the Republican needing 45 % of the Hispanic vote and around 10 -15 % of the Black vote.Thats much harder for republicans to overcome than being down a few points in the polls.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.
The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording,click here.)
Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.
The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording,click here.)