regarding my claim above about the algo being right... this was how nate silver described the effect I anticipated back then with the algo...
he called it herding. I anticipated it and predicted they would become honest adn unskew in front of the election.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0
Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.
There were roughly two dozen polling firms that issued at least five surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, counting both state and national polls. (Multiple instances of a tracking poll are counted as separate surveys in my analysis, and only likely voter polls are used.)
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he called it herding. I anticipated it and predicted they would become honest adn unskew in front of the election.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0
Our method of evaluating pollsters has typically involved looking at all the polls that a firm conducted over the final three weeks of the campaign, rather than its very last poll alone. The reason for this is that some polling firms may engage in “herding” toward the end of the campaign, changing their methods and assumptions such that their results are more in line with those of other polling firms.
There were roughly two dozen polling firms that issued at least five surveys in the final three weeks of the campaign, counting both state and national polls. (Multiple instances of a tracking poll are counted as separate surveys in my analysis, and only likely voter polls are used.)
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