Omicron: Natural immunity idea ‘not really panning out'

[Tsing Tao]

I want to throw something in here that i have previously commented on, but only briefly, in another thread.

As a scientist, and as one who has used PCR in my own work and has studied biochemistry formally, though it is not my area of specialization, I want to mention some aspects of Covid testing that have not been given enough coverage in the media.

It's my opinion that there is misunderstanding regarding Covid testing among both the general public and practicing physicians. What I state below is merely my views based on my training and experience, and I have no data to support these views other than what is publicly available.

HIV was the first virus pandemic among a subset of the population to make wide use of PCR (polymerase chain reaction) as a diagnostic tool. It is still used for HIV patients. Here, PCR is used on blood samples. A positive PCR test for the presence of HIV is a reliable indicator of an HIV infection. Covid-19 is the first viral pandemic after HIV in which PCR is being widely applied. However it is not applied on blood samples but rather on mucous samples, mainly drawn from the nasal passage. A positive test here is not a reliable indicator of infection, but rather a reliably indicator of exposure to the Corona-19 virus.



rt-PCR -- the mode employed for Covid virus -- can, in principle, detect as little as a single virus particle. At this level, detection is controlled mainly by sampling error. rt-PCR detects virus RNA, regardless of whether the virus is viable or not. Handling of PCR samples and the procedure itself requires trained hands and sterile technique.

The nature of PCR is such that it allows a trace of virus, or its nucleic acid content, that is otherwise too low in concentration to be detected, to be amplified geometrically, many fold. The procedure involves automated thermal cycling. Each cycle doubles the concentration of the analyte -- the thing one is looking for. After 40 cycles (not uncommon) the analyte concentration has been amplified by a factor of 5.5 x E11.

If all positive PCR tests are counted as infections the number of real infections will be fewer than the number of positive tests. Actual Infection requires that the virus invade host cells. But PCR of nasal mucous does not test for that. It tests for presence of virus in the nasal passage. If the number of cycles needed to show a positive result is high, there is a lower probability of the virus invading the host than if only ten or so cycles is required. Then the probability of the virus successfully invading the host is much higher. I believe this relationship is likely a contributor to the high number of Covid-19 infections being reported as asymptomatic. It seems to me that all positive PCR tests are being reported as "infections". Most asymptomatic "infections" are probably cases where the virus was found at low levels via high PCR amplification, but the virus did not successfully invade the host.

Going to interrupt here. This is what many folks have been saying all along as to why "infections" - which are being counted purely on positive PCR test - is unreliable. Especially in how sensitive these particular PCR tests are. But this was heresy to state back in the April 2020 timeframe, and those medical professionals who did were attacked and ostracized.

Another factor, an important one, is that early dip stick type tests were found to be insufficiently selective for Covid-19 virus. These tests proved relatively useless. Because States were left on there own to report their test results and early unreliable dip stick tests were often intermingled with PCR test results, the intermingled test results became essentially useless. This is the reason the CDC, once it was freed from administrative interference, decided to discount the early test results in their decision making.

Now we have some measure of national coordination of test result reporting, and the results are far more useful. Today much improved rapid antigen (not antibody) tests are available for Covid-19. These tests do respond to the omicron variant but with somewhat lesser sensitivity than to the prior variants. In my opinion, these antigen tests should be quite useful in early detection of actual infections because of their lower sensitivity compared to that of PCR. I believe it is quite probable that most people testing positive with these current antigen tests while asymptomatic will go on to develop symptoms in a few days, ranging from mild to severe depending on their vaccination status.

I do not want to suggest that the PCR tests are useless. They are highly specific for Covid-19 and if they show a positive result with a low number of cycles that is a red light. Chances are the host will soon experience the symptoms of a Covid infection if they haven't already. But a positive result only after a high number of cycles is a yellow light, indicating the subject has been exposed to Covid-19, and isolation for 5 days is in order to see if an infection develops.

These are my opinions as a person with limited, but certainly not zero, expertise in closely related science. I have years of experience directing research in solid state nucleic acid detectors.

 

[Tsing Tao]

However those who are unvaccinated and caught a previous strain of Covid are basically totally unprotected against Omicron.

If true, and this is an "if" no matter what silly claims you make (because you can't tell if previous infection makes it so Omicron infection is milder or not - probably is), its a good thing that Omicron is a watered down version of a virus that only affected the elderly and unhealthy in the first place to the extent it did (in large part).

 

[ipatent]

Omicron is a watered down version of a virus that only affected the elderly and unhealthy in the first place to the extent it did (in large part).

Omicron affects children more than Delta did.

 

[Tsing Tao]

Why would I get vaccinated for something I already had and recovered from? Makes no sense.

I keep saying this over and over again. When I got the original covid in January of 2020, there was no Covid-19 vaccine available. It took 8 months after I got covid for a vaccine to even be approved.

When I got delta, there was no delta-specific vaccine available.

When I got Omicron, there was no Omicron-specific vaccine available, and there is still no Omicron vaccine available.

If you get this stuff early enough in the curve, there's no help available. You just have to plow through it. Period.

Which is why the best defense is, was and will always be, being healthy - not obese, eating right, good levels of Vit D, etc. all the things that are poo-poo'd by the "experts".

 

[Tsing Tao]

Omicron affects children more than Delta did.

Please post the number of children who died from Omicron so that we might figure out the level of seriousness of the virus in children.

 

[gwb-trading]

If true, and this is an "if" no matter what silly claims you make (because you can't tell if previous infection makes it so Omicron infection is milder or not - probably is), its a good thing that Omicron is a watered down version of a virus that only affected the elderly and unhealthy in the first place to the extent it did (in large part).

Multiple studies showing this... here is just on reminder.

Unvaccinated people who catch Delta strain have very little protection against Omicron infection
https://www.the-sun.com/health/4316...a-strain-little-protection-omicron-infection/

 

[Tsing Tao]

Multiple studies showing this... here is just on reminder.

Unvaccinated people who catch Delta strain have very little protection against Omicron infection
https://www.the-sun.com/health/4316...a-strain-little-protection-omicron-infection/

Ah, The Sun! Credible reporting from the man so critical of all outlets. Tell me, is this on par with "BlogMickey" or better?

This is the headline from your above article:

MUTANT VIRUS
Unvaccinated people who catch Delta strain have very little protection against Omicron infection, scientists fear


Some choice comments from that "article":

Top docs measured the antibody response of volunteers who had previously tested positive for the Delta strain.

The spread makes it more vital than ever for vaccine volunteers to sign up to The Sun's Jabs Army campaign.

The Medical University of Innsbruck study - which did not take into account T cell and B cell immunity due to them being difficult to measure - did say that having had the Delta strain and being double jabbed makes Brits "super immune".​

 

[gwb-trading]

Please post the number of children who died from Omicron so that we might figure out the level of seriousness of the virus in children.

Hospitalizations of children reach new records with Omicron every week. Yet this is not enough for you... you continually whine "Where are the dead children -- unless there are piles of dead children it does not hurt children".

Kids’ Covid Hospitalizations Hit Record in U.S. Omicron Surge

• Childhood admissions rose 66% in a week; deaths remain low
• Kids and adolescents are least likely to be vaccinated

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lizations-reach-record-level-in-omicron-surge

 

[Tsing Tao]

Hospitalizations of children reach new records with Omicron every week. Yet this is not enough for you... you continually whine "Where are the dead children -- unless there are piles of dead children it does not hurt children".

Kids’ Covid Hospitalizations Hit Record in U.S. Omicron Surge

• Childhood admissions rose 66% in a week; deaths remain low
• Kids and adolescents are least likely to be vaccinated

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...lizations-reach-record-level-in-omicron-surge

"Rose 66% in one week!"

Did it go from 5 to 8? Hard to read the article - behind a paywall.

 

[ipatent]

Please post the number of children who died from Omicron so that we might figure out the level of seriousness of the virus in children.

Read this thread (toward the end) before you post anything more on this. By the way, deaths should not be the only criteria. A hospitalization means something serious is happening.