If anyone in this forum has some statistical math on past presidential races for their second term re-election vs. their popularity rating in the fourth year of their first term -- I would like to see an article or information on the subject. I have never seen a very good evaluation or study of the probabilities of being re-elected at President.
If you run across anything with solid information about previous races please post it. Thanks.
Obama was well below 50% aproval when he won and thats with polls that are skewed in his favour, i think Trumps approval is higher than we think but lower than Obama's but i find it hard to imagine anyone could get through this constant barrage from the media.
I will look for articles, but the thinking before the talking heads were saying that it was almost impossible to win with less than a 50% approval rating, but i honestly think that with how devisive politics has gotten, that it is very rare we will ever see another president with more than a 50% approval rating unless the 2 party system is eliminated, i even look at sites like facebook, and its far less common to see articles pumping a politician than shitting all over them, so i think that we will never see another president with 50%+ ratings, simply because you have 2 sides just digging in now, and no one in the middle wanting to admit they approve.
I cant remember the exact statistic, but there was a few that obama was way under water on where no president had won re-election on those terms, and Obama still smoked Romney handily. I dont take that as a thought that Trump will win again, but i think alot of the old metrics are out the window because of the internet and because of how polarised politics has become.
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