NFL Ponzi Scheme In Danger Of Collapsing

If anyone in this forum has some statistical math on past presidential races for their second term re-election vs. their popularity rating in the fourth year of their first term -- I would like to see an article or information on the subject. I have never seen a very good evaluation or study of the probabilities of being re-elected at President.

If you run across anything with solid information about previous races please post it. Thanks.


Obama was well below 50% aproval when he won and thats with polls that are skewed in his favour, i think Trumps approval is higher than we think but lower than Obama's but i find it hard to imagine anyone could get through this constant barrage from the media.

I will look for articles, but the thinking before the talking heads were saying that it was almost impossible to win with less than a 50% approval rating, but i honestly think that with how devisive politics has gotten, that it is very rare we will ever see another president with more than a 50% approval rating unless the 2 party system is eliminated, i even look at sites like facebook, and its far less common to see articles pumping a politician than shitting all over them, so i think that we will never see another president with 50%+ ratings, simply because you have 2 sides just digging in now, and no one in the middle wanting to admit they approve.

I cant remember the exact statistic, but there was a few that obama was way under water on where no president had won re-election on those terms, and Obama still smoked Romney handily. I dont take that as a thought that Trump will win again, but i think alot of the old metrics are out the window because of the internet and because of how polarised politics has become.
 
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Obama was well below 50% when he won


No,he was not

Obama had a 50.1 % RCP average approval rating On Nov 7 2012

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If anyone in this forum has some statistical math on past presidential races for their second term re-election vs. their popularity rating in the fourth year of their first term -- I would like to see an article or information on the subject.


Gallup started approval ratings in 1937.Here are Gallup approval ratings 6 months prior to re election since 1940




Obama and Bush 2 were around 50 % when they got re elected and Gullup suspended polling prior to Truman's re election because of the war.
 
That was the day he won with the boost from the polls once he had already won. All the way going in his approval was lower, and at some points much lower, his approval only went up when Romney became a worse villain, and when Trump and Hillary got nominated and became worse villains, other than that he spent the majority of his time with a sub 50% approval.

No,he was not

Obama had a 50.1 % RCP average approval rating On Nov 7 2012

image.png
 
So you just proved my point, thx. Bush, Carter, Ford, all lost with sub 50 approval everyone else won.

Gallup started approval ratings in 1937.Here are Gallup approval ratings 6 months prior to re election since 1940


 
Trump has never had a 50 % RCP average approval rating


Did i ever say he did? Jesus man, not everything has to be a pissing contest, i wrote what i thought was pretty fair statement, i even said i dont think Trump can possible win, im not sure why you had to get your back up against the wall when what i said was essentially spot on, like what are you trying to prove, that Obama was 0.1% better on election day? you know as well as i do the stat i mentioned holds true, this is why debates are almost impossible on this site.

Sorry i didnt remember Obama managed to sneak in just over 50% on election day my bad i guess i was making all of that up, lol i remembered hearing that stat over and over going into the election.
 
That was the day he won with the boost from the polls once he had already won. All the way going in his approval was lower, and at some points much lower, his approval only went up when Romney became a worse villain, and when Trump and Hillary got nominated and became worse villains, other than that he spent the majority of his time with a sub 50% approval.


Obamas average approval rating for the entire year of 2012 was 48.6 %,thats not much lower and its higher than Trump has ever been on RCP.
 
Did i ever say he did? Jesus man, not everything has to be a pissing contest, i wrote what i thought was pretty fair statement, i even said i dont think Trump can possible win, im not sure why you had to get your back up against the wall when what i said was essentially spot on, like what are you trying to prove, that Obama was 0.1% better on election day? you know as well as i do the stat i mentioned holds true, this is why debates are almost impossible on this site.

Sorry i didnt remember Obama managed to sneak in just over 50% on election day my bad i guess i was making all of that up, lol i remembered hearing that stat over and over going into the election.


I was qouteing myself and stating a fact not taking a shot at you with that one :cool:
 
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