Strat now is to find an early flight to Guatamala .
My amzn & Google naked put sell is In deep red . How to play it on Monday to recover the loss.
- Thread starter Millionaire_Raj
- Start date
poopy has a way with words
i hate put sellers
the win a lot , then they blow up
very messy
Reading this statement...
Does it indicate you collected $13K in premium, but your positions are down -$7,800?
V. Niederhoffer has made a career like that.
OP is in a pickle. Only good that might come from his pain is others come to understand writing naked puts. (Like trying to pick up dimes in front of a steam roller...)
Writing naked calls, same risk. I'm sure some got nailed in Tesla's upside explosion. And then there was that group in 2018, that wrote a ton naked calls on NatGas just before a massive up-spike. Wiped all of their equity and then some.
Bottom Line... "writing naked options is hazardous".
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Yeah, if you're a frickin' bank that leveraged yourself out the wazoo!
You’re fast enough, dudeIt’s a simple conditional probability. You have P(nomination) = 40% and P(presidency) = 25%, which means that P(presidency|nomination) = P(presidency)/P(nomination) = 25%/40% = 62.5%.
It’s from predictit.com from a few weeks ago, I don’t follow these markets as much as I should. Also, I am not saying that’s what’s going to happen, simply that it’s what the market is forecasting. Of course, if you think it’s wrong, you’d wanna buy Bernie nomination and short his presidency in a ratio.
If you combine the odds from Prectitit and Betfair, odds of Bernie presidency is not that great.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
P (Presidency) for Bernie is 23.5%
P (Nomination) for Bernie is 52.5%
P(Pres|Nom) for Bernie = 0.235/0.525 = 44.75%
Neither am I, but he's going to be the nom unless Bloomberg parts the Red Sea.
And for OP, this was the perfect storm -- today's dip will be short-lived, but from what I gather, he doesn't have the capital to hold on to his positions long enough for them to bounce back.