My amzn & Google naked put sell is In deep red . How to play it on Monday to recover the loss.

JamesJ · Feb 23, 2020

Dow weekend otc cfd now - 150.

Same Lazy Element said:
Exactly, that’s what is implied in the betting markets.

I just looked, he’s now at 38% to win the presidency and his nomination is at 66%. You can do the math yourself to get the updated conditional probability

https://www.predictit.org/markets/13/Prez-Election

38% is shockingly high... Wtf.

Makes Bernie a clear favourit over Trump if he is nominated...

Same Lazy Element · Feb 23, 2020

PoopyDeek said:
it’s a delimited (to 100) binary. 62.5 pays 100.

As a side note, the volumes in these contracts are statistically significant. For example, democratic nomination traded 500k on Friday. It’s tempting to get involved somehow.

ps. I owe you dinner

PoopyDeek · Feb 23, 2020

JamesJ said:
Dow weekend otc cfd now - 150.

38% is shockingly high... Wtf.

Makes Bernie a clear favourit over Trump if he is nominated...

"Mixed emotions, buddy. Like Larry Wildman going off a cliff in my new Maserati."

Same Lazy Element · Feb 23, 2020

JamesJ said:
Dow weekend otc cfd now - 150.

Where do you see that?

PS. Actually, conditional on his nomination, the probability of him becoming a president is roughly the same as before (~60%)

JamesJ · Feb 23, 2020

Same Lazy Element said:
Where do you see that?

PS. Actually, conditional on his nomination, the probability of him becoming a president is roughly the same as before (~60%)

IG.com

Same Lazy Element · Feb 23, 2020

JamesJ said:
IG.com

View attachment 220167

Thanks! I don’t know such a thing exists, gonna use it for weekend indicators.

JamesJ · Feb 23, 2020

Same Lazy Element said:
Thanks! I don’t know such a thing exists, gonna use it for weekend indicators.

As far as i can See they adapt prices to news but even more to trader activity against them. If you go long they raise the indication.
If vola is too high they widen the spread, i have Seen it at 30pts for Dow.

Since the quotes are based on (losing) retail cfd trader, they obv may or may not be that good an indication for Futures late sunday.

But they give a good idea of retail Sentiment based on weekend news.

ironchef · Feb 23, 2020

PoopyDeek said:
it’s a (delimited; to 100) binary. 62.5 pays 100. Binaries are probabilities.

Thanks.

PoopyDeek · Feb 23, 2020

Millionaire_Raj said:
View attachment 220025

Loss doubles tomorrow.

JamesJ · Feb 23, 2020

Flash Crash?!

Futures having a hard time finding a bottom right now.
Dow -400. NQ -150, ES -45