My amzn & Google naked put sell is In deep red . How to play it on Monday to recover the loss.

PoopyDeek · Feb 23, 2020

notagain said:
take the loss
View attachment 220080

He’s going to be in a lot more pain come Monday morning.

Same Lazy Element · Feb 23, 2020

PoopyDeek said:
He’s going to be in a lot more pain come Monday morning.

You think we are due for more pain tomorrow?

IAS_LLC · Feb 23, 2020

Not my area of expertise...but I'd guess tommorow is bullish, given Bernie won in Nevada....those big smart money boys on wallstreet love Bernie as the nominee

PoopyDeek · Feb 23, 2020

Same Lazy Element said:
You think we are due for more pain tomorrow?

Oh yes.

Same Lazy Element · Feb 23, 2020

IAS_LLC said:
Not my area of expertise...but I'd guess tommorow is bullish, given Bernie won in Nevada....those big smart money boys on wallstreet love Bernie as the nominee

I think most people I know in pro finance feel that Bernie is bearish for both the equity markets and for the bond markets.

PoopyDeek said:
Oh yes.

because of the tape bombs about China/Corona?

IAS_LLC · Feb 23, 2020

Same Lazy Element said:
I think most people I know in pro finance feel that Bernie is bearish for both the equity markets and for the bond markets.

because of the tape bombs about China/Corona?

I agree, he's bearish if he actually became president. But i don't think anyone that is rational thinks he win the general....which means trump would, and the street loves don john

PoopyDeek · Feb 23, 2020

IAS_LLC said:
I agree, he's bearish if he actually became president. But i don't think anyone that is rational thinks he win the general....which means trump would, and the street loves don john

lol. You trade for a living?

The pendulum swings both ways.

Same Lazy Element · Feb 23, 2020

IAS_LLC said:
I agree, he's bearish if he actually became president. But i don't think anyone that is rational thinks he win the general....which means trump would, and the street loves don john

I have not looked at the prediction market lately, but last I checked the conditional probabilities were such that if Bernie is nominated as the Democratic candidate, he has higher than 50% chances of winning against Trump.

I think it was something like
25% chance of next president being Bernie
40% chance of Bernie being nominated
So conditional probably comes out to 60ish% “if Bernie is nominated, he becomes president”

Cuddles · Feb 23, 2020

PoopyDeek said:
lol. You trade for a living?

The pendulum swings both ways.

was naive of me to wait until super Tuesday it apppears

ironchef · Feb 23, 2020

Same Lazy Element said:
I have not looked at the prediction market lately, but last I checked the conditional probabilities were such that if Bernie is nominated as the Democratic candidate, he has higher than 50% chances of winning against Trump.

I think it was something like
25% chance of next president being Bernie
40% chance of Bernie being nominated
So conditional probably comes out to 60ish% “if Bernie is nominated, he becomes president”

Can you please run that by me one more time, I am not too quick. 25% and 40%, how does that equate 60% of become president?