Sorry I really don't understand probability and statistics.
Wouldn't the odds of a Bernie Presidency be 23.5%*52.5% or 12.3%?
My amzn & Google naked put sell is In deep red . How to play it on Monday to recover the loss.
- Thread starter Millionaire_Raj
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Wouldn't the odds of a Bernie Presidency be 23.5%*52.5% or 12.3%?
https://electionbettingodds.com/ has the probability of a Bernie presidency is 23.6 % and the probability of him getting the Democratic nomination is 53.3%.
By the rule of conditional probability (e.g., https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter1/1_4_0_conditional_probability.php), if he is nominated the probability of him winning would be 23.6 / 53.3 == 44.3%.
The higher probability of him winning the after being nominated intuitively makes sense.
If the two outcomes were independent (e.g., see https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-of-a-and-b/), the probablity would be 23.6% * 53.3%.
He's out another $14-$15K today.
This guy (https://www.forexfactory.com/deltaone) is down $1-2 million.
There isn't a trader on ffactory worth $10K.
Best forex trader I know is on FF and trades a 7 figure account. Very confident he makes millions a year.
Few other pretty successful traders there but not many.
Prefer not to say. He's humble and doesn't like the attention. Not too active anymore.
I have no proof other than the few times he's shown then deleted his account size and positions.
If you follow someone long enough, you get a degree of confidence and figure out who the "fakes" and "real" traders are. Just like traders here don't question Dest's success with options trading.
In 2012 I quit my career (electrician) and started browsing websites for trading knowledge so I've spent a good amount of time there before I started here. I know several good traders there. Know of at least 3 that make 7 figures a year.
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