My amzn & Google naked put sell is In deep red . How to play it on Monday to recover the loss.

[PoopyDeek]

Best forex trader I know is on FF and trades a 7 figure account. Very confident he makes millions a year.
Few other pretty successful traders there but not many.

I'm not buying what you're selling. Sorry. PNL screenshots of the front-end in realtime or it's fiction.

 

[Bum]

I'm not buying what you're selling. Sorry. PNL screenshots of the front-end in realtime or it's fiction.

I don't expect you to believe. There's so many fakes on these sites.
I don't question your success even though I've only been here a few months.
Sorry, I just have confidence I can pick out a fake after following someone long enough.
I'd be willing to bet a good amount of $$ the trader I know on FF makes 7 figures a year.
He's as good with forex as you are at options. He's made plenty of calls as they were happening and he's shown positions as they proceed. He's very good at holding positions for big moves. He risks small and profits big.

 

[PoopyDeek]

I don't expect you to believe. There's so many fakes on these sites.
I don't question your success even though I've only been here a few months.
Sorry, I just have confidence I can pick out a fake after following someone long enough.
I'd be willing to bet a good amount of $$ the trader I know on FF makes 7 figures a year.
He's as good with forex as you are at options. He's made plenty of calls as they were happening and he's shown positions as they proceed. He's very good at holding positions for big moves. He risks small and profits big.

That's fine, but I've traded FX on a desk (my first job) and success in retail FX is literally a 90-95% first year blowout.

 

[Bum]

That's fine, but I've traded FX on a desk (my first job) and success in retail FX is literally a 90-95% first year blowout.

I completely agree. Most traders on FF are nickel and dime traders that have blown at least 1 account. I even blew a $100 account just to prove my no SL strategy wouldn't work There's a very small # that know what they're doing. This site has fewer traders but a much greater success rate and larger account sizes. FF traders trade forex because it can be traded small.

That good trader usually risks 20-30 pips but holds his positions hundreds or occasionally > thousand pips. He admits his success rate is only about 50% but his R:R is so good his win rate is meaningless. I've seen him do this numerous times. Most of his trades are based on daily time-frame but then makes several attempts at picking the top/bottom with small SL before getting the runner to last.

 

[PoopyDeek]

You know Raj held that shit so he's got a shot.

 

[Seaweed]

I completely agree. Most traders on FF are nickel and dime traders that have blown at least 1 account. I even blew a $100 account just to prove my no SL strategy wouldn't work There's a very small # that know what they're doing. This site has fewer traders but a much greater success rate and larger account sizes. FF traders trade forex because it can be traded small.

That good trader usually risks 20-30 pips but holds his positions hundreds or occasionally > thousand pips. He admits his success rate is only about 50% but his R:R is so good his win rate is meaningless. I've seen him do this numerous times. Most of his trades are based on daily time-frame but then makes several attempts at picking the top/bottom with small SL before getting the runner to last.

If he has to make several attempts, then winrate can't be 50%. Of course you can have several losses in a row, but then you also need several wins in a row where you nail it the first time. If he does have a 50% win rate with something like. 1:5 risk to reward, then he is clearly printing money. But usually the win rate isn't so high when target is huge and stops are tight.

 

[Bum]

If he has to make several attempts, then winrate can't be 50%. Of course you can have several losses in a row, but then you also need several wins in a row where you nail it the first time. If he does have a 50% win rate with something like. 1:5 risk to reward, then he is clearly printing money. But usually the win rate isn't so high when target is huge and stops are tight.

His R:R is much better than 1:5.

He's good. End of discussion for me.

 

[Trade Theory]

Now that the scary day is over (or fun day depending on your perspective), whats your plan on the naked puts? Did you close out or hold?

 

[ironchef]

https://electionbettingodds.com/ has the probability of a Bernie presidency is 23.6 % and the probability of him getting the Democratic nomination is 53.3%.
By the rule of conditional probability (e.g., https://www.probabilitycourse.com/chapter1/1_4_0_conditional_probability.php), if he is nominated the probability of him winning would be 23.6 / 53.3 == 44.3%.
The higher probability of him winning the after being nominated intuitively makes sense.

If the two outcomes were independent (e.g., see https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/probability-of-a-and-b/), the probablity would be 23.6% * 53.3%.

OK thanks. I appreciate the explanation. Is conditional probability the same as probability?

You are saying he has a 44.3% chance of becoming our president based on the odds?

 

[guru]

View attachment 220025

1. I don't understand how did you lose $3000 (already by Friday) on the AMZN 1510 Put exp March, when that put was never worth more than $300 in the last few days.
Unless you've got 10 of them, or your broker (Plus500) sells $300 puts for $3000?

2. Time is money, so if you're still in that trade, you can try replacing your naked put with similarly priced LEAP put exp January 2022. For example replace 2150 March put with 1800 put exp Jan 2022, which seems to be similarly priced. Then you'll have plenty of time to recover, pray, or work 3 jobs to save money for 100 shares of AMZN in 2 years.
Though not sure whether that broker supports LEAPs, as they mainly specialize in CFDs?
And this may not be your best option, just an idea.