Global Macro Trading Journal

Is CHF rallying because it expects the Fed to ease or because it expects the Fed to stand pat?

Wouldn't Fed easing be good for asset markets, lessening the need for the "risk off" trade, and CHF negative?

Wouldn't Fed standing pat be bad for asset markets, causing a reversal in today's rally, and driving even more money into CHF?
 
Quote from ralph00:

Is CHF rallying because it expects the Fed to ease or because it expects the Fed to stand pat?

Wouldn't Fed easing be good for asset markets, lessening the need for the "risk off" trade, and CHF negative?

Wouldn't Fed standing pat be bad for asset markets, causing a reversal in today's rally, and driving even more money into CHF?
More...

Maybe some rich people taking the plane from London to Geneva and taking their money with them.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Why not long USD/CHF?
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Well, partly because I don't want to run into a QE3 announcement when the Fed speaks later today. Second, because EURCHF was the main anti-EU trade in the speculative community - I want to fade the most popular, crowded trade of leveraged trend-followers.
 
Quote from ralph00:
Is CHF rallying because it expects the Fed to ease or because it expects the Fed to stand pat?

Wouldn't Fed easing be good for asset markets, lessening the need for the "risk off" trade, and CHF negative?

Wouldn't Fed standing pat be bad for asset markets, causing a reversal in today's rally, and driving even more money into CHF?
More...
I think it's the other way round, judging by today's price action...
 
So Bernanke speaks tonight?

He will trigger of a 1 month rally probably with people and pundits in the fall crying leaders should come together and act decisively to reverse the drop...cause the August fix was burned out....


Its all as much predictable as it is depressing.
 
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