Global Macro Trading Journal

[macrotrader]

How do you know he is down in August?

Yeah, well often highflyers come back to earth. I'm thinking of Peter Thiel and Victor Niederhoffer. Often, not always. Some elect few manage to outperform year after year.

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

CHF is seeing capitulation by the shorts into the Fed meeting. Even if QE3 is announced, it will probably top out and reverse in the next 48 hours, maybe even in the next 48 minutes.

I am entering long EURCHF here at just under 1.04. Half position for now, and see how it trades before going to full size.

 

[ralph00]

Quote from macrotrader:

How do you know he is down in August?

Yeah, well often highflyers come back to earth. I'm thinking of Peter Thiel and Victor Niederhoffer. Often, not always. Some elect few manage to outperform year after year.

Gee, I don't know, maybe it's because equity markets are down like 15% in August. Actually, it was a bloomberg or cnbc article, but I'm too lazy to find you the link.

I wouldn't put VN in with those guys as he's not global macro, and his strategy seems to be shorting vol, which works great 99% of the time, wipes you out in days the other 1%.

There's more to running global macro then picking winners and losers. Most of the GM game is risk management and Paulson and Thiel haven't shown a lot of it. Without preservation of capital, you're just another smart guy, smooth talker who is somehow able to convince folks and endowments with large sums to give it to you to manage.

 

[Martinghoul]

Good luck, GoC... May the Schwartz be with all of us.

 

[ralph00]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

CHF is seeing capitulation by the shorts into the Fed meeting. Even if QE3 is announced, it will probably top out and reverse in the next 48 hours, maybe even in the next 48 minutes.

I am entering long EURCHF here at just under 1.04. Half position for now, and see how it trades before going to full size.

Why not long USD/CHF?

Wow, pretty shocking movements in the last couple of minutes.

 

[gmst]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

CHF is seeing capitulation by the shorts into the Fed meeting. Even if QE3 is announced, it will probably top out and reverse in the next 48 hours, maybe even in the next 48 minutes.

I am entering long EURCHF here at just under 1.04. Half position for now, and see how it trades before going to full size.

GoC, thanks for giving me the courage to again go long e/c. I had managed to cut my long usdchf one for a small loss. But, now I am copying you on this one. Long e/c at 1.04 full size. Thanks.

 

[ralph00]

Quote from gmst:

GoC, thanks for giving me the courage to again go long e/c. I had managed to cut my long usdchf one for a small loss. But, now I am copying you on this one. Long e/c at 1.04 full size. Thanks.

EUR/CHF dropped 40 pips while you were typing

 

[gmst]

Quote from ralph00:

EUR/CHF dropped 40 pips while you were typing

yes probably i should have entered half size.

Remember from a week ago, i was going long e/c around 1.08/9 and it seemed v. good price....had cut loss then also before SNB intervened.

e/c has caused me to lose a lot in 2 weeks. I hope GoC call will bring good luck to me this time.

 

[Daal]

Bank runs?

 

[Daal]

I just closed my EUR/CHF short(Macro trade) and USD/CHF short(USD Hedge). I'm going to be surprised if they don't intervene in the next 24/48 hours. Still short EUR against JPY and USD