Global Macro Trading Journal

I hope I am witnessing capitulation in eurchf before my eyes. If this is not capitulation, what is !!!

I also hope that barrier writers would buy tons of eurchf to defend 1.0000 barrier options they would have sold !!!
 
Quote from Daal:

Damn, 3 against just extending the extended, imagine for QE3
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Heroes, put 'em up on Mt. Rushmore. Where were these dissents earlier this year?
 
Quote from gmst:

I hope I am witnessing capitulation in eurchf before my eyes. If this is not capitulation, what is !!!

I also hope that barrier writers would buy tons of eurchf to defend 1.0000 barrier options they would have sold !!!
More...

It will probably go beyond parity now.

Maybe 0.80 or so and the rebound back to parity or so.

Giant moves always overshoot.
 
Quote from Debaser82:

It will probably go beyond parity now.

Maybe 0.80 or so and the rebound back to parity or so.

Giant moves always overshoot.
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1. Maybe you are correct, but a short term bounce 'has to happen'. It has gone parabolic - on daily charts, weekly charts. There has to be atleast some kind of bounce before down trend begins again.

2. People said same thing for eurusd when it reached 1.20 that it is going to parity, and I remember head of GS strategy (jim o neil) coming on tv and saying 95-98% of people he talked to are bearish so there could be a bounce. (Agreed that chinese came in strongly to buy at that level). Someone might come in to buy at these levels. Our own GoC is buying and Daal has covered. Both highly respected investors in my eyes.

3. SNB might do a last-ditch intervention. I am surely hoping. Basically, I will take half of my position off at 1.04 where i had entered, because this drawdown is too much for me. And I will take another quarter at 1.06 and another at 1.08. This plan is as of now.
 
Quote from gmst:

Our own GoC is buying and Daal has covered. Both highly respected investors in my eyes.
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Sorry, but his made me laugh. Those guys may be George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller posting under an alias, but may God have mercy on your trading account ...
 
Those brutal telegraph pole candles in the bond charts IMO pretty much means that for the time being the GDP trend-line growth recovery is buried. Rosie must be dancing on his table right now.
 
Quote from gmst:

1. Maybe you are correct, but a short term bounce 'has to happen'. It has gone parabolic - on daily charts, weekly charts. There has to be atleast some kind of bounce before down trend begins again.

2. People said same thing for eurusd when it reached 1.20 that it is going to parity, and I remember head of GS strategy (jim o neil) coming on tv and saying 95-98% of people he talked to are bearish so there could be a bounce. (Agreed that chinese came in strongly to buy at that level). Someone might come in to buy at these levels. Our own GoC is buying and Daal has covered. Both highly respected investors in my eyes.

3. SNB might do a last-ditch intervention. I am surely hoping. Basically, I will take half of my position off at 1.04 where i had entered, because this drawdown is too much for me. And I will take another quarter at 1.06 and another at 1.08. This plan is as of now.
More...

Good luck dude and what the hell do I know so it's anyone's guess really.
 
Goldman out with a note saying forget the dissents, QE3 is on. Stocks on moonshot now. Might erase most of yesterday's loss before it's all over today.

Aussie $ up 200 pips in minutes. NLY up 9%.:)
 
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