Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

How about BAC? Trading at half tangible book value, that is a valuation closer to the depths of the 2009 lows, yet there is no question of the book value being under a cloud like there was back then. On the chart, there's been panic liquidation at huge daily volume too. Even a rebound to the level of 3 days ago would be a 40% return on capital.

Obviously selling could continue, so you need to be able to hold on and maybe average down again if it pukes even lower. But I don't think BAC is going bust, and it's trading like it has a serious risk of doing so.

Any thoughts?
More...

I'm actually long BAC plus got another limit order for today in my short-term systematic trading account. But its just a snapback play
 
in regards to BAC, i wouldn't buy it but there's a possibility in spin offs. a more proper valuation in that scenerio would be around 9/10 a share. will management have its hands forced to sell off assets?

a recession is not fully priced in and looking more likely as more economic data comes out. the stock could get a lot cheaper
 
Quote from m22au:

You could be right on it not going bust, but Chris Whalen (whose opinion I respect) thinks BAC needs capital.

A bounce would be reasonable, but I don't think it will go as far as stronger financials that aren't in such bad shape.
More...

Any picks?
 
Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

How about BAC? Trading at half tangible book value, that is a valuation closer to the depths of the 2009 lows, yet there is no question of the book value being under a cloud like there was back then.

Any thoughts?
More...

Berkowitz likes it. Biggest position of his huge FAIRX fund. He lost quite a ton with this position though.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43343328/Fairholme_s_Berkowitz_Still_Bullish_on_Bank_of_America

I like the idea of buying stuff that smarter than me analysts have bought for 2x the price, in this case it would be BAC and SHLD.
 
Quote from Daal:

The rumors are talking about Paulson level 'large', not just a big fund
More...

Paulson's biggest fund down 21% through the end of July. Down another 10% in August. That's just ridiculously bad for a supposedly sophisticated global macro fund. Paulson never was a global macro guy, but hit the jackpot when he hired Pelligrini who dreamed up the housing short.

I find it hard to believe that Paulson's investors aren't redeeming given this pathetic performance. His fund could definitely be the reason behind the devastation in C and BAC.
 
Quote from ralph00:

Paulson's biggest fund down 21% through the end of July. Down another 10% in August. That's just ridiculously bad for a supposedly sophisticated global macro fund. Paulson never was a global macro guy, but hit the jackpot when he hired Pelligrini who dreamed up the housing short.

I find it hard to believe that Paulson's investors aren't redeeming given this pathetic performance. His fund could definitely be the reason behind the devastation in C and BAC.
More...

Obviously he was right about gold but for now we can say he used the wrong method to play it's rise... through the goldminers.


It's like I believe GoC once said on this board.

Being right on a direction of a certain asset is only like maybe 20% of what is needed to actually be succesfull.


It is quite strange to see many of the miners being below the levels of where they were when gold was below 1000$ but it is what it is and time will tell which one is overrated (gold) or undervalued (the miners).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top