Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from ralph00:

I read a piece the other day that says 2011 is shaping up like 2008. It's an easy thing to say and everyone's (including me) been screaming about how this whole GFC thing ain't over yet. But the article is really making sense - the slowing realization that it's solvency, not liquidity, and the interconnectedness of everything. Giving Greece however many billions may help it meet its next few mortgage payments, but whether this works depends on markets believing things will have improved on the other side. Once the markets decide not, this stuff is going to roll to other entities faster than the bureaucrats can print the paper.

I'm also surprised how much Tim Geithner has been able to keep his name out of the paper. His fingerprints are all over events in Europe right now. If there's an extralegal way for the eurocrats to push this thing along, Geithner is the man to show them.

I'm still in the camp that says the papering over works for immediate future. I remain short fcx (somewhat substantially, and looking for a nice spot to exit) and short aud (not very substantial) in addition to core stuff like NLY.
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Should silver fall to around the 25$ level i'd say it would be a very nice entry point.

That would be a 50% retreat and sure it could go lower but from a longer term perspective I would argue chances are reasonable you would come out on top for all the obvious reasons.
 
Apparantly this is Eurostock 50's worst run in 15 years.

Some kind of relief rally should be upon us in the following weeks in which I expect stocks to do relatively well, CHF retreat and the AUD breaking the 1.30 level with the Euro.

Not so sure about the metals. Maybe some money will temporarely flow out of them in suport of equity markets.


But what will trigger the rebound? No idea. Hope? :p
 
Easy. Greece will pass the austerity measures next week, giving them access to another €110B.

PASOK members are peeling off, but several opposition party members will vote for the bill or abstain - passage is likely a certainty (again, unless there is some sort of armed rebellion).
 
Also, Premier of China visiting Europe next week. Expect all the right things to be said about China buying Euro paper. Doesn't change anything, but anybody pressing shorts could get burned.

Worth little, but my guess is markets rally strong into the Greek vote, just the way they rallied into the confidence vote. The confidence vote marked the absolute peak in equities and the euro. I think the rally for the austerity vote may have more legs.
 
Population of Greece is about 1.5 mil,the size of phoenix,all the pump and dump around Greece default/bailout is just a lid/prybar to move the markets favorably once positioned,Europe leaders take forever to come to agreement and the they's and their TV pundits are milking it for all its worth, without the small fry's to point fingers at,we would be forced to look at balance sheets of the largest countries which are much worse..similar to blaming 2008 on the small ,non creditworthy new home buyers or the SEC only prosecuting Bernie Madoff...eventually this tactic will have run it's course and the pump of stimulus over the last 3 years will unwind...as the pump that began in 91 with the dotcom bubble ,then real estate and now tarp has reached its apex,market moves in 3's
 
I'm considering gradually starting to buy up some commodities ETFs at these levels(GSG GCC, but not RJI which is an ETN with an european bank behind it and I don't want to risk)
 
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