Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from Daal:

Fed's likely to be wrong on UR forecasts
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/22/the-feds-wishful-and-wrong-thinking-about-unemployment/

Plus there are all the shadow inventory of workers who will come back to the labor force. It seems to me that the Fed is projecting optimistic UR recovery just so they don't get criticized for nothing doing anything as they are uncomfortable with letting iexpectations go up some more
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Or ... maybe they're just a bunch of incompetent Phds and bureaucrats trying to do the impossible job of centrally planning a $15T economy.
 
Quote from Martinghoul:

The Eurosh1tshow continues... Onwards and upwards to our next victim, the Italian banks.
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How you are/planning to profit from this?
 
I read a piece the other day that says 2011 is shaping up like 2008. It's an easy thing to say and everyone's (including me) been screaming about how this whole GFC thing ain't over yet. But the article is really making sense - the slowing realization that it's solvency, not liquidity, and the interconnectedness of everything. Giving Greece however many billions may help it meet its next few mortgage payments, but whether this works depends on markets believing things will have improved on the other side. Once the markets decide not, this stuff is going to roll to other entities faster than the bureaucrats can print the paper.

I'm also surprised how much Tim Geithner has been able to keep his name out of the paper. His fingerprints are all over events in Europe right now. If there's an extralegal way for the eurocrats to push this thing along, Geithner is the man to show them.

I'm still in the camp that says the papering over works for immediate future. I remain short fcx (somewhat substantially, and looking for a nice spot to exit) and short aud (not very substantial) in addition to core stuff like NLY.
 
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