Global Macro Trading Journal

Quote from ralph00:

The Germans have already turned against the bailouts. Merkel is finished and she knows it. Every politician involved in finished and they know it. I'm sure they've all lined up a swanky EU job and a bunch of board memberships so they can live out their days in the finest of accommodations.

At every single step of this process, all (including myself) have underestimated the forces behind keeping this game going. Yes, something will happen at some unspecified point in the future, but anyone betting on it now will be pushing daisies or have their account wiped out by that point. Bets made now should be made knowing that the game will be kept going.

Unless you've got inside info of armed rebellion in Greece or Ireland forming, an admission must be made that the bureaucrats/governments/bankers have won this battle.
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Tell that to the CHF/EUR pair
 
I missed the press conference(A rare thing for me to miss a major Fed event but this seemed like a non-event and I had some stuff to do)

Looks like I was correct to suspect that Bernanke misspoke when he referred to extended period as 'couple meetings'

From GS:
4. At the same time, his remarks hinted that the FOMC has in fact discussed easing options. Specifically, he said options could include: 1) securities purchases, which could be structured in various ways; 2) a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves; 3) guidance on how long the Fed will wait to sell securities; and 4) or “a fixed date to define extended period”. With regard to the extended period language, he revised his remarks from the last press conference, in which he said the extended period language meant “there would be a couple of meetings probably before action”. Today he said: “I think the thrust of extended period is that we believe we're at least two or three meetings away from taking any further action, and I emphasize ‘at least.’”
 
But perhaps misspoke is not the right word. Its a strange 'coincidence' that the talk gets dovish when the data is bad but becomes tough when the data is good. Back in 2010 when the talk was all exit Bernanke NEVER went out of his way to say what extended mean, the FOMC reacted to Dudley 'six months' by saying 'its not a timetable' now that the data gets worse all of the sudden extended gets extended a bit more

I'm surprised the Fed futures didn't react much to this
 
Euro CHF broke the 1.20 level.

A few more bad days on the stockmarket and we are at 1.10 or so.

Remember when it was at 1.40 and the SNB was crying and Zero hedge kept reporting everyday on how they would step in. :D
 
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