Global Macro Trading Journal
- Thread starter Daal
- Start date
My point is that stocks go up in the long-run and capitalism works. There are so many things that can go wrong with a short position, this latest just adds another one to the list. I'm short PPD and lost quite a bit there even though the company is a ponzi with an unsustainable business model of hiring fools who they mislead, yet they are getting bought out...
I still short a stock here and there but I need to be sure like hell and even then I will size the position carefully
Stratfor on EU/Greece
http://business.financialpost.com/2...break-every-rule-in-book-to-keep-it-together/
Absolutely ridiculous to believe policymakers won't do what is necessary to keep the game going. Nothing short of a street revolution literally toppling a government a la Tunisia is going to stop policymakers. Anybody shorting the euro because they think the EU is going to turn its back on Greece or vice versa needs to have their head examined.
http://business.financialpost.com/2...break-every-rule-in-book-to-keep-it-together/
Absolutely ridiculous to believe policymakers won't do what is necessary to keep the game going. Nothing short of a street revolution literally toppling a government a la Tunisia is going to stop policymakers. Anybody shorting the euro because they think the EU is going to turn its back on Greece or vice versa needs to have their head examined.
Does Tilson actually make money for his investors?
The only thing I know about him is that he's a media whore, got destroyed shorting NFLX, LULU, and some other high-flyers, and recommended to his buddy Ackman to buy MBIA in 2005, whereupon Ackman promptly shorted it and made billions.
The only thing I know about him is that he's a media whore, got destroyed shorting NFLX, LULU, and some other high-flyers, and recommended to his buddy Ackman to buy MBIA in 2005, whereupon Ackman promptly shorted it and made billions.
There is also the possibility of the German population turning completely against more help to the peripheral countries since the German press is raising the tone against the use of German money to save Greece. However I believe this possibility might take more time than the Greeks running away of more fiscal adjustment.
In the end, I cant see any option for Greece without a restructure of its Debt and even in this scenario Greece will continue to have a competitive problem because they cant devalue while they are in the EUR Zone.
In the end, I cant see any option for Greece without a restructure of its Debt and even in this scenario Greece will continue to have a competitive problem because they cant devalue while they are in the EUR Zone.
(responding to 1973) ...
The Germans have already turned against the bailouts. Merkel is finished and she knows it. Every politician involved in finished and they know it. I'm sure they've all lined up a swanky EU job and a bunch of board memberships so they can live out their days in the finest of accommodations.
At every single step of this process, all (including myself) have underestimated the forces behind keeping this game going. Yes, something will happen at some unspecified point in the future, but anyone betting on it now will be pushing daisies or have their account wiped out by that point. Bets made now should be made knowing that the game will be kept going.
Unless you've got inside info of armed rebellion in Greece or Ireland forming, an admission must be made that the bureaucrats/governments/bankers have won this battle.
The Germans have already turned against the bailouts. Merkel is finished and she knows it. Every politician involved in finished and they know it. I'm sure they've all lined up a swanky EU job and a bunch of board memberships so they can live out their days in the finest of accommodations.
At every single step of this process, all (including myself) have underestimated the forces behind keeping this game going. Yes, something will happen at some unspecified point in the future, but anyone betting on it now will be pushing daisies or have their account wiped out by that point. Bets made now should be made knowing that the game will be kept going.
Unless you've got inside info of armed rebellion in Greece or Ireland forming, an admission must be made that the bureaucrats/governments/bankers have won this battle.