The danger comes in my view after the Fed's pause in Sept...
The celebration of going from 8% inflation to 5% I feel will happen in Aug.<-- That could be a big rally.
Sometime towards that OCT time period the realization will come that the rate of descent has drastically slowed and 5% inflation could tick UP... And here is where the market gets ugly fast....
This is why I have been saying over and over the Fed should be thinking about moving the goalposts now and saying the new inflation target rate is 3.5%... this may reduce some of the panic and also may encourage the rate to keep dropping, or people to keep betting on it when it gets to 5%
The celebration of going from 8% inflation to 5% I feel will happen in Aug.<-- That could be a big rally.
Sometime towards that OCT time period the realization will come that the rate of descent has drastically slowed and 5% inflation could tick UP... And here is where the market gets ugly fast....
This is why I have been saying over and over the Fed should be thinking about moving the goalposts now and saying the new inflation target rate is 3.5%... this may reduce some of the panic and also may encourage the rate to keep dropping, or people to keep betting on it when it gets to 5%

