For most CV is just another flu but...

[Turveyd]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm

So you had a million prediction and the government last night released news for a forecast of 200,000

Are you still predicting a million???????

Because someone's numbers are wayyyyy wayyyyy wayyyyy wayyyyyyyyyyyy off!!!!!!!!!


White House predicts 100,000 to 240,000 will die in US from coronavirus
PUBLISHED TUE, MAR 31 20205:49 PM EDTUPDATED TUE, MAR 31 20207:59 PM EDT




https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/tru...oing-to-be-a-very-very-painful-two-weeks.html

He doesn't get it's 4.8% of tested people die, only the really sick get tested, therefore 99%+ don't, which brings the numbers down massively.

UK looking like 1/2 Flu, US looking like Flu X's 2 or 3 but only cause health care system sucks.

It's mostly the old and sick which haven't got long to live anyway, kinda doing a lot of them a favour I'd say.

Also the death's are, Deaths where people tested positive, it's in the description, about 1/2 in the UK are dying of heart attacks / cancer but they have C19 therefore counted, so it's actually Flu / 4 in the UK.

Spains peaked coming down nicely, deaths will drop a lot soon as health care can catch up.

Italy, no numbers yet.

UK deaths dropping as very few critical, yesterday was a bunch of unrelated deaths added after as they had C19 at time of death, although not a factor. Expect UK to get worse briefly before peaking mind.

USA doubt it'll hit 50K deaths, over cook it the get praise for keeping well under

 

[Stamamarti]

So you are still playing with the million model!! Got it.

 

[S2007S]

He doesn't get it's 4.8% of tested people die, only the really sick get tested, therefore 99%+ don't, which brings the numbers down massively.

UK looking like 1/2 Flu, US looking like Flu X's 2 or 3 but only cause health care system sucks.

It's mostly the old and sick which haven't got long to live anyway, kinda doing a lot of them a favour I'd say.

Also the death's are, Deaths where people tested positive, it's in the description, about 1/2 in the UK are dying of heart attacks / cancer but they have C19 therefore counted, so it's actually Flu / 4 in the UK.

Spains peaked coming down nicely, deaths will drop a lot soon as health care can catch up.

Italy, no numbers yet.

UK deaths dropping as very few critical, yesterday was a bunch of unrelated deaths added after as they had C19 at time of death, although not a factor. Expect UK to get worse briefly before peaking mind.

USA doubt it'll hit 50K deaths, over cook it the get praise for keeping well under

I think that's why they gave it a 100k plus estimate because if it's well under that they will look like absolute heroes.

 

[Turveyd]

Starting to look like Covid-19 is all a total scam and illusion ran by the media and fear.

Explains all of the made up numbers, yes people are dying, people die all the time, there not testing for Covid 19 they can't, there testing for any Covid present in the system vastely inflating the death rate.

Bastards!!

 

[Turveyd]

I think that's why they gave it a 100k plus estimate because if it's well under that they will look like absolute heroes.

They gave uk 500K, then 250K and it'll be 3K area so hero's, created so much fear the stupid public will role over backwards for them in future.

 

[wrbtrader]

I dont know how 1 million is a possibility, if they claim we are going the way of china and Italy they then it should peak out in 2-3 weeks so if that is very true 1 million is an extremely extremely extremely extremely fabricated number to even predict.

The issue is the lack of resources (e.g. ventilators, medical masks/gloves) in North America / Europe while China, Japan, South Korea have (still do) those resources. Another way to say it...they were prepared while we are not.

In fact, wearing medical masks is a part of their culture prior to the other pandemics. In contrast, its not a healthy habit in North America / Europe.

This is the main reason why they predict North America / Europe will easily exceed the numbers of ill & deaths & chronic health problems of those countries involving Covid-19. This is why it looks like an "over-reaction" in North America when in reality we're still trying to catch up to the preparedness of China, Japan and South Korea.

That trying to catch up is costly, economic disaster and psychologically burdening too.

To give an example, I remember a typhoon warning in Asia when I lived there and then travel on vacation to Japan and then a typhoon warning was given in Japan...everybody I saw bunker down. There was no mad dash to the stores.

In contrast, I was vacationing on the south east United States and then there was a hurricane warning...

I saw a mad dash to the stores and people filling up their grocery carts until it overflow. Some were actually making threats or fighting.

Regardless, I choose to live in North America & Europe with my family. I can only ensure my family is prepare instead of depending upon the government to do it for me. A habit I picked up while in the military and living abroad.

wrbtrader

 

[southall]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm

So you had a million prediction and the government last night released news for a forecast of 200,000

Are you still predicting a million???????

Read my original post properly:

"If nothing was done then this outbreak of CV would be like 36 years of Flu happening at once"

Obviously stuff is being being done everywhere around the world.

This thread was aimed at the idiots on ET who were saying we should should do nothing, dont shut things down, treat like normal flu, not many people will die.

Then 1+ million would have died, this still stands. And even the WH and Trump admits this now.

The WH are saying up to 2.2 million would have died if they didnt shut things down and just ignored it instead.

 

[southall]

He doesn't get it's 4.8% of tested people die, only the really sick get tested, therefore 99%+ don't, which brings the numbers down massively.

You didnt read my oringal post either.

I used 0.06% number as the estimate for the death rate.

I assumed 99.4% of those infected would not die.

I also assumed CV would infect 6 times as many people as regular flu does, if nothing serious was done to stop it spreading.

Both of these are realistic assumptions.

And give you over 1 million deaths in that case.

If we are going to get 50K or 100K lost with large of sections of the economy shutdown, ask yourself how many would have died it everything was still BAU?

 

[Turveyd]

You didnt read my oringal post either.

I used 0.06% number as the estimate for the death rate.

I assumed 99.4% of those infected would not die.

I also assumed CV would infect 6 times as many people as regular flu does, if nothing serious was done to stop it spreading.

Both of these are realistic assumptions.

And give you over 1 million deaths in that case.

If we are going to get 50K or 100K lost with large of sections of the economy shutdown, ask yourself how many would have died it everything was still BAU?

0.6% or 0.06% so 99.94% wouldn't die ??

It's looking like about 0.06%, but there slapping anyone that dies with any corona virus into the death list, which is inflating it somewhat.


0.06% gives the US approx 180K dead.

 

[southall]

0.6% or 0.06% so 99.94% wouldn't die ??

It's looking like about 0.06%, but there slapping anyone that dies with any corona virus into the death list, which is inflating it somewhat.


0.06% gives the US approx 180K dead.

I meant 0.6% which is 0.006 as a decimal, it is easy to mis type and add extra zeros.

240 million infected * 0.6% = 1.44 million dead.

180 million infected *0.6% is still more than a million dead.

Flu infects 20 to 60 million in the US ever year. CV is definitely more contagious than regular flu.

Spanish flu killed around 700,000 in the US when the population was just 100 million in total, less than 50 million of those 100 million got infected.