For most CV is just another flu but...

[southall]

.. on a larger scale for wider society.

CV is just another flu, just on a larger scale for how many die, somewhere between 25 and 50 times larger scale.

Im calculating CV is Flu times 36.

In the US about around 40 million infections per year for flu. 250K need hospital treatment. 40 thousand die.

CV would be 240 million infections. Most of those would have light symptoms. 'Just' 10 million would require hospital treatment. Over 1 million would die.

CV can also cause more lung damage than Flu, so for the worst hit it will feel much worse than Flu.

My analysis is CV death rate is 6 times Flu death rate (0.6% vs 0.1%)
Infection rate is also about 6 times yearly Flu average (eg 40million flu infections per year in US vs 240 million for CV).

If nothing was done then this outbreak of CV would be like 36 years of Flu happening at once.

Lockdowns aim to slow it down and reduce the numbers hitting hospitals at any one time.

Then remove restrictions and let the next batch hit the hospitals.

Keep repeating until a vaccine is found.

However the problem is even with this strategy hospitals are likely to run out of ventilators and ICU beds because the demand is still too high.

 

[clacy]

Wait you’re predicting that over 1m will die?

Under. I’ll take the under

 

[dozu888]

number is garbage

 

[southall]

Wait you’re predicting that over 1m will die?

Under. I’ll take the under

Only if we took no measures, over 1 million would die in the US from CV.

number is garbage

Sadly not, I wish i could come to some other conclusion and give lower numbers, this is why the US economy is being shutdown. The numbers would be this bad.

 

[PoopyDeek]

Friend of the family died from COVID-19 today. 41yo captain of a major airline. Wife symptomatic but not hospitalized. Oldest child sick but recovering.

Last time you heard of a healthy 41yo non smoker who died of the flu? Right, never.

 

[southall]

Friend of the family died from COVID-19 today. 41yo captain of a major airline. Wife symptomatic but not hospitalized. Oldest child sick but recovering.

Last time you heard of a healthy 41yo non smoker who died of the flu? Right, never.

I did say in my opening post that it is worse on the lungs for the worst hit, than flu is.

For those who need hospital treatment the symptoms are much worse than flu.

I also used the word 'most' in the title for this thread.

 

[southall]

The point of the thread was not to downplay how bad COVID-19 is.

In fact the opposite.

Left to run rampant the death count will be over 1 million in the US.

I worded it like this to get the attention of the idiots who actually think this is just another flu and that governments are over reacting.

 

[trading_jean]

Thanks Southall, this is one of the clearest overviews I have seen. A lot of people are blinded by the low % of deaths and fail to understand even those low %'s mean hospitals (IC) will be full and more people than necessary will die.

 

[S2007S]

I dont know how 1 million is a possibility, if they claim we are going the way of china and Italy they then it should peak out in 2-3 weeks so if that is very true 1 million is an extremely extremely extremely extremely fabricated number to even predict.

 

[S2007S]

Thanks Southall, this is one of the clearest overviews I have seen. A lot of people are blinded by the low % of deaths and fail to understand even those low %'s mean hospitals (IC) will be full and more people than necessary will die.

You believe 1 million??????????????