Italy's cases are about the same and death many time more. You are telling us China has better healthcare than Italy?
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For most CV is just another flu but...
- Thread starter southall
- Start date
10 million needing hospital and 1 million dead are conservative numbers if 240 million get infected.
Lockdowns will mean we never get to 240 million infections.
240 million is not an outrageous number given that flu infects up to 60 million people a year in the US, and CV is much more contagious than flu.
Operative word is if. Even I play devil's advocate and assume there are 10 million in the US currently, infected but, not tested. Assume further that those with serious symptoms will call 911 and be taken to the emergency rooms of hospitals. They will be evaluated by doctors and majority will be found having mild symptoms and sent home to quarantine themselves and get well. We will assume the death rate as it is which is 2,229 deaths which is what is actually reported. Now, based on that, 2,229 deaths over 10,000,000 Corona Virus infections is a death rate of 0.02%. So, you are projecting millions of deaths based on the so called bogus academics seeking their 15 minutes of fame? Utter nonsense!
Even I play devil's advocate and assume there are 10 million in the US currently
There are probably about 1 million infections in the US at the moment.
Of those around 6000 will die. And at least 50,000 will we be wanting hospital beds. The rest will be mild cases.
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Italy's cases are about the same and death many time more. You are telling us China has better healthcare than Italy?
China did strict lock down on the whole country.
but lets take Wuhan the epicenter... 3000 dead on 10m population, so 300 per m, that is inline with italy and spain currently at about 150 per m, and showing signs of peaking, when all is said and done both prolly end up with 500 per m worst case.
so the US has no where near the population density of Italy / Spain... but even if we hit 500/m, that's 200k death tops, in the worst case scenario.... then compare to the 80k death from the 2018 flu.
you see this whole picture... just a flu+, or flu on steroids.
a real nothing burger if you consider the full out panic.
all this is simple math... what people don't have is independent thinking, logical thinking skills, essentially the same skill sets required for the markets...
this is why so few succeed in the markets, because this skill is rare, you see how lonely the cool heads are on the forum... the % prolly is inline with the very few % who actually makes money in the market.
it's not a very hard skill... if you have minimum 110 IQ and TRAIN this skill for some time you will get it... this is not some quantum physics.... just basic number gathering.
this is why so few succeed in the markets, because this skill is rare, you see how lonely the cool heads are on the forum... the % prolly is inline with the very few % who actually makes money in the market.
it's not a very hard skill... if you have minimum 110 IQ and TRAIN this skill for some time you will get it... this is not some quantum physics.... just basic number gathering.
Wait you’re predicting that over 1m will die?
Under. I’ll take the under
I'm predicting 150K globally this year.
China did strict lock down on the whole country.
but lets take Wuhan the epicenter... 3000 dead on 10m population, so 300 per m, that is inline with italy and spain currently at about 150 per m, and showing signs of peaking, when all is said and done both prolly end up with 500 per m worst case.
so the US has no where near the population density of Italy / Spain... but even if we hit 500/m, that's 200k death tops, in the worst case scenario.... then compare to the 80k death from the 2018 flu.
you see this whole picture... just a flu+, or flu on steroids.
a real nothing burger if you consider the full out panic.
Assume China is lying. Their people had to say "don't be afraid to tell the truth to your boss"
I agree with you on this. Just want to add the following on short term trading:this is why short term traders are such a pathetic group... not just here.... I visit some other places the reaction is the same..
fcking $3m is peanuts.... I also have a circle of real estate friends, many of them have portfolios sitting on gains FAR bigger... I am telling you short term trading is mostly for the losers still living in mom's basement... do something productive for the grace of god.
what's the point.... how many 401k millionaires are in Fidelity alone.... if you stay invested.
have some grand vision for fck sake.. you have never experienced a 'super cycle' that's why these gains look astronomical to you.
do you know how many multimillionaires were made in China due to the real estate rise in the past 25 years... you go around telling people about $3m they'd laugh... not to mention prime real estate markets around the world have seen huge gains.
I caught a small piece by luck, $25k 20 years ago, now it's worth $1m... now imagine the people living there, catching bigger pieces.
THINK BIGGER, PLAY BIGGER!
1. If it is all you do for a living and for investing your asset, your chance of making it is very small, worse than trying to make it in Hollywood.
2. If it is a small part of your overall asset base (even if that asset base is small), if you still have a day job, like a professional hedge fund manager getting paid out of fees, then trading can be very profitable because you then have the staying power and the ability to take advantage of opportunities. Even in today's market you could make some real money if you trade in and out of BA, for example, from $90 to $180...
If I were a young trader I do #2.
I'm predicting 150K globally this year.
Assume China is lying. Their people had to say "don't be afraid to tell the truth to your boss"
now you consider global flu death average is 400k per year... corona is a real nothing burger.
now you consider global flu death average is 400k per year... corona is a real nothing burger.
Well... still remains to be seen if I'm right!
I agree with you on this. Just want to add the following on short term trading:
1. If it is all you do for a living and for investing your asset, your chance of making it is very small, worse than trying to make it in Hollywood.
2. If it is a small part of your overall asset base (even if that asset base is small), if you still have a day job, like a professional hedge fund manager getting paid out of fees, then trading can be very profitable because you then have the staying power and the ability to take advantage of opportunities. Even in today's market you could make some real money if you trade in and out of BA, for example, from $90 to $180...
If I were a young trader I do #2.
I want to avoid the thought process of doing things because of my age. I will hope not to lose my guts as I get older.