Election 2024 Foreplay

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Right as we speak, some former Clinton lefty is on CNN.

She says: "Donald Trump had a really bad night in South Carolina because he only got 60%"

Only got 60% in Nikki Haley's home state.

Cannot make this sh#t up.

CNN SUCKS.
 
Nikki Haley said she only needed to get more than 43% in her home state of South Carolina. She just failed to hit that goal.
https://www.yahoo.com/gma/nikki-haley-said-she-only-062619004.html



At this point I can only assume she is staying in the race only because she wants to fill up her campaign chests with money.


Haley's crushing defeat in South Carolina shows she has no real path to catch Trump: ANALYSIS
She has money to keep going, but not the delegate math to reach the White House.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hal...h-carolina-shows-real-path/story?id=107523969


 
NO NO NO NO NO,you are making this way more complicated than it is.I got dizzy trying to understand your post :confused:

All that matters is who is leading in the majority of the last 10-12 polls.



In Feb 2008 Obama was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Obama won the popular vote in November.



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In Feb 2012 Obama was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Obama won the popular vote in November.



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In Feb 2016 Clinton was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Hillary won the popular vote in November.



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In Feb 2020 Biden was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Biden won the popular vote in November.


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Although not as good as approval ratings national aggregate polling is excellent in predicting the popular vote winner.It is not good in predicting the exact margin of the popular vote winner.While I post Trump + 5 etc I pay zero attention to how many points a poll has a candidate ahead or margin of error etc,all that matters is who is ahead in most of the recent polls.


Sorry..I forgot not everyone understands econometrics.

Obama was not running against independents really, also had huge leads beyond margin of error.

Popular vote is not what decides elections always as we see in 2016.

If the independents truly drop out and the polls show trump 10 out of 12 on polls but witin 2-4% then they basically are even.... that is all I said.
 
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