he won't leave prison.
NO NO NO NO NO,you are making this way more complicated than it is.I got dizzy trying to understand your post
All that matters is who is leading in the majority of the last 10-12 polls.
In Feb 2008 Obama was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Obama won the popular vote in November.
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In Feb 2012 Obama was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Obama won the popular vote in November.
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In Feb 2016 Clinton was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Hillary won the popular vote in November.
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In Feb 2020 Biden was ahead in 10 of the last 12 polls.Biden won the popular vote in November.
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Although not as good as approval ratings national aggregate polling is excellent in predicting the popular vote winner.It is not good in predicting the exact margin of the popular vote winner.While I post Trump + 5 etc I pay zero attention to how many points a poll has a candidate ahead or margin of error etc,all that matters is who is ahead in most of the recent polls.
Popular vote is not what decides elections always as we see in 2016.
also had huge leads beyond margin of error.