Election 2024 Foreplay

El OchoCinco said:
Obama was not running against independents really,
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Not sure what that means.Obama did have a problem with progressives,many of them who voted for him in 2008 did not do so in 2012.Unlike Biden will be able to do Obama had more blacks to come out and vote for him in 2012 than did in 2008.If Obama hadn't gotten the highest black voter turnout ever to make up for the lost of some progressives he would have lost.Thats why Biden has no chance.Biden has lost far more progressives than Obama did and he has lost millions of blacks that voted for him in 2020.
 
El OchoCinco said:
If the independents truly drop out and the polls show trump 10 out of 12 on polls but witin 2-4% then they basically are even.... that is all I said.
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They wouldn't be even.Obamas final lead over Romney was just 0.7,but Obama lead 5-2 in the last 12 polls or 8-3 in the last 15 polls.As you can see leading 5-2 or 8-3 was far more important in predicting the winner then the 0.7 he lead by.



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Also they certainly wouldn't be even with the slave states electoral college edge which is 3-5 points for the republican.Even Usualname agrees with that,at least he used to until Biden started sinking in the polls.



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In 2016 The Green Party got 1% of the vote in WI

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Currently The Green Party is polling at 4% and Biden is hated far more than Hillary with Progressives,Blacks,Hispanics,Arabs and climate voters.

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