No fills on Friday, only 1 today...+$100.
Don
Don
Don's openings and more for 2005
- Thread starter Don Bright
- Start date
Dear Don,
Hello again and hope yu are feeling better.
Question: How do you use Fair Value in the market on open strategy? I just use the difference between the prior close and the current price of the futures multiplied by the beta of each stock times the factor to get the limit buy/sell price.
Also, what factors are you using, .1%-.5%?
Regards,
Hello again and hope yu are feeling better.
Question: How do you use Fair Value in the market on open strategy? I just use the difference between the prior close and the current price of the futures multiplied by the beta of each stock times the factor to get the limit buy/sell price.
Also, what factors are you using, .1%-.5%?
Regards,
.1-.5 currently, yes. If FV is 4.03, and spx and esm5 are equal, then you must adjust your bids/offers down by 4.03 divided by spx. I don't usually bother with beta, though some traders who trade hundreds of stocks on the opening seperate them by beta.
Don
BTW, only $180 today, Tuesday. Boot campers started keeping track today, with 80% win/loss rate...good start for them.
Don, Boot campers, and anyone considering attending.
Save your money, here's why:
Perhaps a lesson in expectation would help your boot campers understand why they will lose money despite an 80% win rate.
Assumptions: .04 tgt, .10 risk, .01 per share traded. 80% win rate, 20% lose. 100% probability of paying commissions. These are your numbers.
ME = (.04*.8)+(-.10*.20)+(1*-.04)
ME = .03 + (-.02) + (-.04)
ME = -.03
Your boot campers have an expectation, based upon your teaching, of losing .03 cents per share traded. And someone will actually pay you for 8 weeks of this intensive BS. Gimme a break.
You should be ashamed of yourself Mr Bright. How much money have you helped people lose?
Save your money, here's why:
Perhaps a lesson in expectation would help your boot campers understand why they will lose money despite an 80% win rate.
Assumptions: .04 tgt, .10 risk, .01 per share traded. 80% win rate, 20% lose. 100% probability of paying commissions. These are your numbers.
ME = (.04*.8)+(-.10*.20)+(1*-.04)
ME = .03 + (-.02) + (-.04)
ME = -.03
Your boot campers have an expectation, based upon your teaching, of losing .03 cents per share traded. And someone will actually pay you for 8 weeks of this intensive BS. Gimme a break.
You should be ashamed of yourself Mr Bright. How much money have you helped people lose?
Since your numbers are soooo far off base, and since that many of our traders have less than a 1 cent round turn cost, I suggest to anyone reading that they disregard your comments (you are simply taking a training process at the kindergarten level and not carrying it forward to graduate levels). We must teach kids how to read and to arithmetic before moving them up the educational ladder.
Education lasts a lifetime (for successful traders), and those who base a conclusion on minimal (and flawed) data are simply not helping anyone out with all of this.
(Not being defensive, just realistic).
Have a good day everyone....
Don
good morning...
7 fills 500 shares each
5 long / 2 short +$135.00
out by 9:45....blocked aig & gm....big mistake....
if i did not block and waited p&l would have been $1518.00 on 4500 shares total at 9:30 am...
had to cut it short...too busy with other plays....
i am working to automate exits in this scenario...
o/o works if you have the right stocks and paramaters....
- .85 / + 1.15%
if you are unsure if this is viable...check old posts
there are some nuggets of knowledge there....
7 fills 500 shares each
5 long / 2 short +$135.00
out by 9:45....blocked aig & gm....big mistake....
if i did not block and waited p&l would have been $1518.00 on 4500 shares total at 9:30 am...
had to cut it short...too busy with other plays....
i am working to automate exits in this scenario...
o/o works if you have the right stocks and paramaters....
- .85 / + 1.15%
if you are unsure if this is viable...check old posts
there are some nuggets of knowledge there....
Why don't you correct my math, algabraic wiz? Don, It's a simple model, plug in the correct assumptions and demonstrate how one can make money. I was being generous, I didn't even factor in desk fees, the 80% win rate is very aggressive (to say the least) A recent boot camper sent me a PM stating that he/she was paying 1.25 cents per share. ( Not less than .01 round turn.)
No problem, I will adjust the assumptions (to your rosy view of the world)and once again we see that a trader will make absolutely nothing running your strategy.
ME = 0 (that's mathematical expecation is equal to zero)
Since you want to make this an educational discussion. Let's talk about the success of your training programs. Let's hear more about what your star traders are doing to get results. I hear that your most profitable trading group(your words) (the canada group) is 500k under water. And you consider that profitable trading? Perhaps it's time you came clean and admit that your training program does nothing to help traders make money, and for that matter, you have done very little to create profitable traders.
Where in gods name did you get that OPG players are going for a .04 target? I agree that there would be no point in it if that were the case.
I started the stategy in january with small size to get the hang of it, and gradually increased size, Because I CONSISTENTLY MAKE MONEY DOING IT.
Example: Today - 3/22/05
XRX Opening print was low of day @14.25 and that's where I got filled.
Please look at a 1 minute chart tell me why in the Hell would I get out with only 4 cents in my pocket. I wouldn't. Instead, I would get out where it made sense at the time, which was the previous 2 day low in this case. Made 20 cents on the trade.
I was a sceptic also. But instead posting unwarranted negative banter about a strategy i'd never even tried myself, I thought i'd give it a try since the guys in my office were doing it and making money. And what do you know? It worked. And it still works.
Jeff, Echo trader (Dons competitor)