If the understanding of historical behaviour was not derived from historical data, then from where/what? lol
Does Probability exist?
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If the understanding of historical behaviour was not derived from historical data, then from where/what? lol
Huh???
it's a fine line. somewhere between crunching the numbers and what the people really want gets lost. If you have ever filled out a survey, you probably feel like none of the options match exactly how you feel. But nobody wants to pay for a really good shrink who gets into peoples heads and asks them individually, "What do you like more? Coke or Pepsi?"
So one side says, "I don't need to know about people, all I need to know is numbers."
and the other side says, "I don't know that much about numbers, but I know people."
it all in the end comes down to numbers, but that is a long time to last
in the most vulgar example, today the dow is at 18k. A mathematician will compute how the mkt reacts when it is at 18k, where as a people person judges how people are today at 18k.
See the difference?
Great observation. These folks who believe the past equal the future in the financial markets have an entire world view rooted in self delusion. Its impossible to reason with many of them. This is because they can be succesful despite the delusion. This is very seductive. surf
How are people today at 18k? How are the banks algorithms? What are their feelings??
If you're limiting your definition of "data" to numbers, then you are missing out on a great deal.
thought this was thread was supposed to be about probability, apparently it's about behaviour.
I said I use historical behavior. Historical data is of course necessary, but not used as simple historical data like most people use it. It is used to create the historical behavior. And where as historical data maybe is not reproduced, historical behavior is reproduced.
The problem that LCTM had was historical data, not historical behavior. So I don't have this problem, that was the point. It is clear that you need data, if not there is nothing to calculate with.
So I use historical data, but at the same time I don't used it. It depends of what you mean with "use". For me it means what you base your decisions on, and for me that is historical behavior, not historical data.
no kidding, most traders are the most gullible people on earth. They think they have discovered a "secret" for predicting the future. Which brings us back to "probability."
I had a friend who bet me a dollar that he could flip 4 tails out of five tosses
I bet and won
a while later he came back and said there was something wrong with his coin, could he use one of mine? and bet me $5 he could toss four tails out of 5 tosses.
I bet and won
Then after a while he came back and said it was a problem with his wrist and could we toss again for ten dollars?
I bet and lost
when I asked him if he would bet again for $20 he said, "No, that is too much to bet."
How could a people person judge how other people are today at whatever price level?
Call or communicate with them individually? lol
So through what way(s), if not price data (of course Historical, as nobody knows tomorrow's price)? Please enlighten me!