Does Probability exist?

[i am nobody]

thought this was thread was supposed to be about probability, apparently it's about behaviour.

Probability depends of the behavior of the elements that influence probability. So we are still on track.

 

[OddTrader]

thought this was thread was supposed to be about probability, apparently it's about behaviour.

Probably. Some call it behaviour, others might say price action, market analysis, TA, etc. Same kind of oils, different names! lol

 

[loyek590]

How are people today at 18k? How are the banks algorithms? What are their feelings??

a hell of a lot different than they were last time when they were partying like it was still 1999

 

[OddTrader]

So I use historical data, but at the same time I don't used it.

Very good. Perhaps JH can say it much better, I believe.

 

[dbphoenix]

How could a people person judge how other people are today at whatever price level?

Call or communicate with them individually? lol

So through what way(s), if not price data (of course Historical, as nobody knows tomorrow's price)? Please enlighten me!

"How other people are today" is reflected in what buyers are willing to pay and sellers are willing to accept. As to what that means, one must look at context, or structure, or architecture, i.e., how the auction market functions.

"lol"

 

[dbphoenix]

thought this was thread was supposed to be about probability, apparently it's about behaviour.

The market isn't an engineering schematic; it's a behavioral model. Has been for millennia.

 

[loyek590]

"How other people are today" is reflected in what buyers are willing to pay and sellers are willing to accept. As to what that means, one must look at context, or structure, or architecture, i.e., how the auction market functions.

"lol"

lmaoontfrwl (laughing my ass off on the floor rolling with laughter.)

 

[Visaria]

The market isn't an engineering schematic; it's a behavioral model. Has been for millennia.

So what does that have to do with probability?

 

[dbphoenix]

So what does that have to do with probability?

The probability that traders will behave one way vs another. Which is the basis for behavioral economics and thereby behavioral finance, nearly all of which stems from Charles Mackay and Gustave Le Bon.

 

[marketsurfer]

I said I use historical behavior. Historical data is of course necessary, but not used as simple historical data like most people use it. It is used to create the historical behavior. And where as historical data maybe is not reproduced, historical behavior is reproduced.
The problem that LCTM had was historical data, not historical behavior. So I don't have this problem, that was the point. It is clear that you need data, if not there is nothing to calculate with.
So I use historical data, but at the same time I don't used it. It depends of what you mean with "use". For me it means what you base your decisions on, and for me that is historical behavior, not historical data.

You are dreaming. Pure and simple. Nothing wrong with that, however.