Does Probability exist?

I like the past, it is very comforting. Every event has a probability of either 0 (didn't happen) or 1 (did happen), and I can find out and know with confidence. It's the future that makes me kind of nervous because everything pretty much has a probability between 0 and 1 and is unknown and I don't have much confidence. Except death and taxes, but those aren't very comforting.
Probability -- transition of events from state of 'unknown' to 'known', as confused or obfuscated by time.
'Always in motion, the future is.'
 
dbphoenix said:
"How other people are today" is reflected in what buyers are willing to pay and sellers are willing to accept. As to what that means, one must look at context, or structure, or architecture, i.e., how the auction market functions.

"lol"
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Sad
 
probabilities exist until they don't. Just like my account, it is probable that if I keep doing what I have been doing it will make a lot of money. That's why every year my trading account becomes less and less a part of my total net worth. Because one of these days, the probabilities I am trading on will no longer exist, and I will never know what would have happened because my trading account will be zero.
 
We live in a never,ever changing world. We can only know that which has happened in the past.All analysis of the past can only describe what has happened in the past. Calculations can sometimes describe what has happened with reasonable assurance. You can WAG it or Swag it but nothing assures individual action success.What happens after your entry is controlled by others and you can only respond to their actions. Many have thought they knew and went all in to their detriment. Be not one of them!
 
heypa said:
We can only know that which has happened in the past.All analysis of the past can only describe what has happened in the past.
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If you knew by planting an apple seed into the ground that it would sprout into a tree and will eventually bear fruit.....you can see that there is dependency & conditions:
An apple (bear fruit) cannot exist without the tree.
A tree cannot exist without the seed.

So for anything to exist it must depend on something else.
That means there is "cause and effect."

If you were to plant a seed into the ground, you have a probability of what can happen BEFORE it happens.

So for "Probability" to exist, it too must depend on something else.

But to "know", again must depend on something else.....is the right conditions. (placing a seed into dry sand will not provide the right conditions)

With the right conditions the effects will follow. (cause, right conditions and the effects)
 
Blueline said:
If you knew by planting an apple seed into the ground that it would sprout into a tree and will eventually bear fruit.....you can see that there is dependency & conditions:
An apple (bear fruit) cannot exist without the tree.
A tree cannot exist without the seed.

So for anything to exist it must depend on something else.
That means there is "cause and effect."

If you were to plant a seed into the ground, you have a probability of what can happen BEFORE it happens.

So for "Probability" to exist, it too must depend on something else.

But to "know", again must depend on something else.....is the right conditions. (placing a seed into dry sand will not provide the right conditions)

With the right conditions the effects will follow. (cause, right conditions and the effects)
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That's all well and good. However, the logic is misapplied if you are using this reasoning to think about financial markets.

Anyone using charts or price is looking at the effect not the cause. Therefore, the idea is fatally flawed at the premise. Understanding the cause allows proper analyse of the future effect which is price movement. You cannot look at the effect and determine the probability of the next effect. It really has nothing to do with it.

Even the most verbose among you will not even present the parameters of a simple system for proper testing on an actual data set. but would rather rely on claims, wizard like proclamations and the publishing of charts to self prove themselves after the fact. Truly ridiculous.

Why traders keep clinging to this "feelgood" idea is very unusual and has parallels to ancient belief systems without evidence.

surf
 
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i am nobody said:
For me it means what you base your decisions on, and for me that is historical behavior, not historical data.
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Brother Nobody, I see you are trying here, so hard, to make believers out of non-believers.
This is virtually impossible because they have already made up their minds.
 
BSAM said:
Brother Nobody, I see you are trying here, so hard, to make believers out of non-believers.
This is virtually impossible because they have already made up their minds.
More...

I know, I should stop posting.
You cannot know from past what future will do:
MWSnap075.jpg


I never post signals in realtime but sometimes mention what my system tells to do in PM postings. 16 minutes after the signal I posted this to somebody. Timestamp is Chicago time. Still short 5 hours later. About 22 points, but I know now that it is impossible. Marketsurfer told me. Probability does NOT exist.

EDIT: just closed position.
 
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