I watched WizardTrader's EuroFX journal, and he got into a similar short like me and stopped out when it went up. The difference was that I made a few shorts after that on the way down, and got lucky on the the big slide. But I gotta say I was wondering about calling it quits for the day, but perhaps since it was early trading for the day I made a decision to trade the action a little more. It's kind of "breaking the rules", though when running up losses equalling or surpassing a typical day's profits.
It seems many traders resigned after the whopping whipping action. We'll probably see them back in later in the session. And after the japanese holiday with US traders in action during the asian session, we might see some spicier trading there too tonight.
Gotta let that posts# stay there a little - kind of reminds me of some of the ES orderbook "signalling" earlier this year where someone would toggle the number of contracts to display an imposing number - and then some action started. Makes one wonder though. Changing the depth could actually be used to do some signalling if recognition functions were implemented and synced .. The danger is when someone figures that out and copies it.
Some remarks after the FOMC statement:
http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/repo...urce_shorttake/year/2004/weekly/39/index.html
(mainpage
www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html - I always start the day by reading here.)
excerpt:
WHERE ARE THE SIGNS OF REGAINED TRACTION?
According to the Fed statement (and Greenspan's testimony of a few weeks ago), "output growth appears to have regained some traction." Well, perhaps we should look at some key indicators to see how much traction we have.
The index of industrial production inched up 0.1 percent in August after gaining 0.6 percent in July; the index had declined 0.3 percent in June.
Retail sales fell 0.3 percent in August after rising 0.9 percent in July; sales had decreased 0.7 percent in June. Excluding the volatile auto component, retail sales rose 0.2 percent in June and August, 0.3 percent in July.
Personal disposable income rose 0.1 percent in July after a 0.2 percent hike in June. Monthly income growth had averaged 0.5 percent between January and May.
Housing starts increased in July and August after declining in June when mortgage rates had increased sharply. Mortgage rates have since declined in July, August and early September.
Other than improvement in housing starts, it is hard to find much traction in these indicators. The monthly manufacturing surveys from the regional Feds moderated significantly in August, as did the two ISM surveys. Perhaps Greenspan and colleagues were focusing on the improvement in the labor market. Indeed, nonfarm payroll employment managed to increase nearly 150,000 in August after recording monthly gains of not quite 100,000 in both June and July. Typically, a rise in employment will translate into faster income growth - and that eventually leads to accelerated spending on retail sales. But judging from historical standards, there is no question that even the August payroll gain was pathetic.
The Fed's rate hikes have little to do with economic activity and everything to do with the fact that the fed funds rate target after inflation adjustment has been negative for too long - for 25 out of the past 26 months. The rate needs to be adjusted to prevent this year's high energy prices from triggering wider price pressures and an inflationary spiral. Though core inflation is tame, it could begin to accelerate given easy credit conditions and ongoing supply shocks in important commodities.
Fed policy makers are predicting that economic activity will grow at a healthy rate in the third and fourth quarters. Economic activity was robust in the second half of 2003 as well as the first quarter of 2004, but activity moderated in the second quarter as consumer spending came nearly to a standstill. Consumers were certainly hit by sticker shock at the gas pump. Gasoline prices have come down from their highs and consumers are becoming more accustomed to spending roughly $2/gallon.
