Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings
- Thread starter chinook
- Start date
Market is wickedly ruthless with stops now. A lot of will but too small of a following just yet. It will exhaust traders throughout the day, so we might get locked into a tight range with noone doing anything.
Better fiscal control in the EZ now it seems.
[16:18 EUR/USD: German Officials Upbeat On "05] Boston, September 22: Finance minister Eichel and Buba president Weber are on the tape with a relatively upbeat look ahead for 2005. The positive economic outlook should be used for budget consolidation, Weber said, while forecasting a possibility of Germany meeting the 3% deficit cap, with a little effort. Reform efforts are proving difficult to push through, with Schroeder suffering decline support at the polls in local elections. Reform looks like it will be slow, at best. EUR/USD continues to run into US offers at 1.2260 and sits at 1.2150, underpinned by a $1.50 rise in oil to $48.25.
Also remember the G7 w/China ... might be a good catalyst for moves.
[15:25 USD/CNY: China Seen "Broadening Scope" of Forex Market] San Francisco, September 22nd: The G-7 meeting on Oct. 1st is expected to focus on oil prices and China according to reports from Kyodo. Ahead of this meeting, US Treasury Secretary Snow has clearly increased his verbal attacks on China"s fixed currency in recent days. In apparent response, China"s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) stated yesterday that it would broaden the scope of forex positions that commercial banks are allowed to hold and look to launch derivatives for forex hedging. However, SAFE reiterated that the fundamental value of the currency will remain the same. In addition, the Singapore press reports that China is considering allowing overseas investors to issue Yuan-denominated securities and allow local institutional investors to buy overseas shares. China non-deliverable forwards widened again overnight to 2370/2270 in reaction to the USD weakness after the FOMC move yesterday. These are the highest levels since Sept. 15th.
edit:
[16:44 EUR/USD: Bulls Glum As Rallies Capped] Oil"s up $1.65, the Dow is down 110 and EUR/USD can"t even get back to its pre-FOMC levels at 1.2280. It"s all a bit worrying for the EUR bulls who are not being rewarded for their repeated loyalty to the single currency. Stops are gathering in the 1.2220/30 area but are protected by Asian and American bids on dips. Leveraged accounts continue to sell rallies to 1.2260.
[16:25 FX OPTIONS: EUR Vols Slide, Fear Of Breakout Ebbs] New York, September 22: Yesterday afternoon"s sharp Dollar selloff got the markets thinking of a breakout of the narrow ranges that have dominated the foreign exchange markets for the past 6 months or so. Today"s reversal put those thoughts on the back burner and few see any reason to hold long vols positions while the range trading continues. Some traders describe today"s Dollar rise as the result of the biggest "dollar bear trap" the markets have seen in quiet a while. Others express confusion and see limited follow through as the market gropes for directional clues. 1-month EUR/USD vols fell to a fresh 21-month low at 8.4% and few in the market see vols bouncing anytime soon. It has been a favored strategy of traders looking to supplement weak trading income by selling vols over the past few weeks. 1-week vols have fallen to a paltry 7.55% and reflect the lack of concern from the markets. The Risk Reversal steadied at 0.15% favoring EUR calls. There were a number of 1.2250/60 strikes that expired today. Option barriers at 1.2350 weren"t triggered today and remain in focus. 1-month USD/CHF vols fell 0.2% to 9.0% and the RR steadied at -0.15% favoring CHF calls. 1-month GBP/USD vols fell 0.05% to 7.6% and the RR steadied at -0.2% favoring GBP puts.
Better fiscal control in the EZ now it seems.
[16:18 EUR/USD: German Officials Upbeat On "05] Boston, September 22: Finance minister Eichel and Buba president Weber are on the tape with a relatively upbeat look ahead for 2005. The positive economic outlook should be used for budget consolidation, Weber said, while forecasting a possibility of Germany meeting the 3% deficit cap, with a little effort. Reform efforts are proving difficult to push through, with Schroeder suffering decline support at the polls in local elections. Reform looks like it will be slow, at best. EUR/USD continues to run into US offers at 1.2260 and sits at 1.2150, underpinned by a $1.50 rise in oil to $48.25.
Also remember the G7 w/China ... might be a good catalyst for moves.
[15:25 USD/CNY: China Seen "Broadening Scope" of Forex Market] San Francisco, September 22nd: The G-7 meeting on Oct. 1st is expected to focus on oil prices and China according to reports from Kyodo. Ahead of this meeting, US Treasury Secretary Snow has clearly increased his verbal attacks on China"s fixed currency in recent days. In apparent response, China"s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) stated yesterday that it would broaden the scope of forex positions that commercial banks are allowed to hold and look to launch derivatives for forex hedging. However, SAFE reiterated that the fundamental value of the currency will remain the same. In addition, the Singapore press reports that China is considering allowing overseas investors to issue Yuan-denominated securities and allow local institutional investors to buy overseas shares. China non-deliverable forwards widened again overnight to 2370/2270 in reaction to the USD weakness after the FOMC move yesterday. These are the highest levels since Sept. 15th.
edit:
[16:44 EUR/USD: Bulls Glum As Rallies Capped] Oil"s up $1.65, the Dow is down 110 and EUR/USD can"t even get back to its pre-FOMC levels at 1.2280. It"s all a bit worrying for the EUR bulls who are not being rewarded for their repeated loyalty to the single currency. Stops are gathering in the 1.2220/30 area but are protected by Asian and American bids on dips. Leveraged accounts continue to sell rallies to 1.2260.
[16:25 FX OPTIONS: EUR Vols Slide, Fear Of Breakout Ebbs] New York, September 22: Yesterday afternoon"s sharp Dollar selloff got the markets thinking of a breakout of the narrow ranges that have dominated the foreign exchange markets for the past 6 months or so. Today"s reversal put those thoughts on the back burner and few see any reason to hold long vols positions while the range trading continues. Some traders describe today"s Dollar rise as the result of the biggest "dollar bear trap" the markets have seen in quiet a while. Others express confusion and see limited follow through as the market gropes for directional clues. 1-month EUR/USD vols fell to a fresh 21-month low at 8.4% and few in the market see vols bouncing anytime soon. It has been a favored strategy of traders looking to supplement weak trading income by selling vols over the past few weeks. 1-week vols have fallen to a paltry 7.55% and reflect the lack of concern from the markets. The Risk Reversal steadied at 0.15% favoring EUR calls. There were a number of 1.2250/60 strikes that expired today. Option barriers at 1.2350 weren"t triggered today and remain in focus. 1-month USD/CHF vols fell 0.2% to 9.0% and the RR steadied at -0.15% favoring CHF calls. 1-month GBP/USD vols fell 0.05% to 7.6% and the RR steadied at -0.2% favoring GBP puts.
Well, I'm up 13 ticks with commissions at around 4 ticks, so I'll call it a day. Kinda sleepy now, better get some food. 
Good luck with that trade, chinook.
I wasn't trading actively when sailing - I was having a prolonged vacation - perks when owning computer consultancy biz'es.
BA would be nice to visit some day, but I think I prefer calmer countries soon.
Good luck with that trade, chinook.
I wasn't trading actively when sailing - I was having a prolonged vacation - perks when owning computer consultancy biz'es.
BA would be nice to visit some day, but I think I prefer calmer countries soon.
I'm Flat and thankful!
I bought tons on the way up yesterday and woke up this morning to be pleasantly surprised...
Michael B.
I bought tons on the way up yesterday and woke up this morning to be pleasantly surprised...
Michael B.
Quote from Gringinho:
Well, I'm up 13 ticks with commissions at around 4 ticks, so I'll call it a day. Kinda sleepy now, better get some food.
Good luck with that trade, chinook.
I wasn't trading actively when sailing - I was having a prolonged vacation - perks when owning computer consultancy biz'es.
BA would be nice to visit some day, but I think I prefer calmer countries soon.
Good job. Not a bad day for you given the ugly chart.
I'm kind of reaching my mental stability limit here. It's been tiring day for me.