Chinook's EUR/USD (E/$)Mumblings

Quote from chinook:

I managed to catch most of this last slide. Now, I'm back to OK +P/L. One more short here. Hopefully, it'll be the last one for today.

Edit:
I got my second short too. This slide made my day. +33 ticks net for the day after comish. I'm embarrassed to write how many round turns I made today--Let me just say I made >1 tick net per trade!!!
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Hehe, I know that feeling. Those days make one think about the cheapest possible commisons, and the killing the CME makes on us.
I'm just about finished too - with some errands waiting. Ok day, considering the 20+ negative start, but only 16 points for me, while commisions nearly 5 points ("only").
I'm thinking "just one more" .. but that's some famous last words again. :)

I wasn't able to do much of the big slide, since I was having a late lunch. It looks kind of ominous - but I still belive that the longer term charts are upbeat - bar any very big break down of course. The latest slide just adds to frustration of traders who got in after the dust settled on the chopping block after Leading Indicators.
Since we made money, someone gotta be hurting, and CME can take new gold-dusted baths. :D


edit:
[18:35 EUR/USD: Testing Bids Near 1.2285 After Hawkish Fed Minutes] Boston, September 23: The market was expecting little eye-opening from the August FOMC minutes but got more than they bargained for after the Fed suggested significant tightening moves are in the pipeline. EUR/USD dipped to 1.2280/85 before steadying. Large stops are not seen until below the 1.2245/50 level, dealers report. Expect sellers to return on rallies now that the upside has proven tough to break once again today amid options protection offers ahead of 1.2350.

Well, that could change things towards the next FOMC decision - but , nah, not my longer term bias. :)
 
Quote from Gringinho:

Hehe, I know that feeling. Those days make one think about the cheapest possible commisons, and the killing the CME makes on us.
I'm just about finished too - with some errands waiting. Ok day, considering the 20+ negative start, but only 16 points for me, while commisions nearly 5 points ("only").
I'm thinking "just one more" .. but that's some famous last words again. :)

I wasn't able to do much of the big slide, since I was having a late lunch. It looks kind of ominous - but I still belive that the longer term charts are upbeat - bar any very big break down of course.
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Nice job in turning around the ship!

Well, I made that "one last trade" which was on the long side and cost me 9 ticks relatively fast! So I'm closing the day with +24. What a day! Lunch and nap time for me :)
 
Sorry the reason I was asking those 2 questions:

1. I pay over $10 a round trip on any currency futures contracts
and I know you pay less.

2. After 20 years in the fx mkt and about 15 trading for someone
else I am seriously considering quiting and trading for myself.
I am just trying to figure out how much risk and capital it
would take to generate half my compensation that I get now.

Anyways sorry I should have been more clear about what I was getting at.
 
gwac, you're welcome - I like the updated commentary from IFRMarkets. It's reassuring to read what others think about the market - that's the main reason I like them - and because I scalp I need to have a lot of checking and updates all the time.

I would think EuroFX futures with a price/margin of ca USD 1600 per contract worth € 125 000 and USD 12.50 profit per tick/pip would be the best instrument and most flexible leverage around. I'm a newcomer to FX - only traded it since mid-june of this year, but I like the futures and think I know enough about spot FX dealers to see that the CME currency futures are the best for me.

I pay roughly 36.5% of an tick per R/T now, although it varies with higher commissions at the start of each month, and then decreases with more trades executed.

Here's a listing of fees by IB:
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/php/generalAccount/futuresPricing2.php?ib_entity=

For me futures also made sense because I got to use the same trading techniques that I used when trading the ES index futures, so the transition was really easy and fast. I watched the action for a few weeks, found comparable sources for spot FX, news sources and then went ahead trying to better understand what and why things happened.

Then there's the security in the proven electronic platform and the order types available in contrast to spot FX.

I chose IB mainly because of low commissions, flexible and very varied products, advanced trading platform with a plethora of order types, flexible and well proven API with a multitude of 3rd party applications (free and commercial) and reputation. They also happen to be the largest contributor to Globex with regards to number of trades (I read it somewhere, but forgot the link - will look for it again).

IB also introduced spot FX, and just might do something interesting there too. At least they're reputable for being honest and a low bullshit factor. Just take a look at Timber Hill related activities with regards to improving the industry and markets.

Sure, there are other good futures specialists, but I just might go with the Kospi 200 or HKFE sometime in the future, and then I know IB will be the one for me. It's a true one-stop-shop for me.
 
Quote from gwac:

Sorry the reason I was asking those 2 questions:

1. I pay over $10 a round trip on any currency futures contracts
and I know you pay less.

2. After 20 years in the fx mkt and about 15 trading for someone
else I am seriously considering quiting and trading for myself.
I am just trying to figure out how much risk and capital it
would take to generate half my compensation that I get now.

Anyways sorry I should have been more clear about what I was getting at.
More...

gwac,

I also recommend Interactive Brokers. As our friend in Brazil pointed out, their commissions are reasonable and they don't BS you.

Regarding trading full-time and how much you need to trade, it depends on your style/time-frame. Just make sure that you have enough money to live on for an extended period of time. Also, consider the possibility of losing some of your capital.
 
It's time for couple of stiff whiskey+diet cokes & nuts and some TV action. I swam hard this evening and completely relaxed me. Today's trading almost melted my brain!!!

Good luck to you all Asian+Early European session traders!
 
Will do some earlier trading from now on. :)

[10:59 EUR/USD: Stops Trip But Follow-Through Remains Limited] London, September 24: The rise into the 1.2300"s on the back of the Swiss private bank that bought the pair up from 1.2270, has tripped light stops around 1.2305. [EUR/USD] has since seen little follow-through and trade now looks to consolidate the move up to 1.2310 by staying in the 1.2300"s. Any pullback now finds 1.2290 bids but with large offers still between 1.2335 and 1.2350 the upside for the pair remains limited. US data today in the form of US durable goods could be key with the lack of option expiries seen into the weekend.

[09:45 EUR/USD: Trading Finally Breaks Asian Range On US Inflow Fallings] London, September 24: Data showing Central Bank holdings of US Treasuries has shown a marked fall of USD4.2Bn has opened the door for [EUR/USD] to finally break the Asian range of 1.2257-1.2287. The data is normally erratic but at first glance the numbers are USD negative and could impact the USD further if the inflows continue to weaken. Swiss names are now buying [EUR/USD] and the price has moved into the 1.2300"s and is looking to retest 1.2325 offers. The stops at 1.2305 have managed to stay intact on the first attempt but are likely to be tripped on the next stab higher. The "quasi" central bank that has been a seller in recent days is still a touted giver ahead of the 1.2350 wall of option defensive offers.

[08:52 EUR/USD: EZ Data Buoys But US Sales Maintain Tight Morning Range] London, September 24: Eurozone data this morning has underpinned the EUR as Italian data was released showing a marked rebound. Italian industrial orders for July rose by 2.3%, following a fall of 0.6% the previous month. Sales also grew and marked a +0.7% rise over the month, from -1.4% decline in the previous month. Though over the year, they fell -1.8% from 5% growth in June due to unfavorable base effects. In sales both domestic and foreign orders suffered as they fell by - 1.8% and -2.5% respectively. The results are consistent with July PMI seen rising to 52.6 from 52.3, so a correction from June"s fall was expected, but the breakdown shows that domestic industry is still fragile and external demand is waning. However as [EUR/USD] tries to move higher US sales are continuing to cap the pair under 1.2280. With charts rolling over and momentum slowly building a push back to 1.2290 offers intraday is likely. With trade still constrained by a tight 1.2257-87 range, also seen in Asia, few gains are expected.
 
Got whipsawed a little on the durable goods and am down 10 pips for now. Better get into it again. :)

edit: down 4 pips now - but nice action around 1.2350 on the spot. I wouldn't have liked to be a FXCM customer today - they had a ~35 pip difference with Refco and with the futures ... They were around sub-1.23 when the futures were at 1.2330s ... :eek:

They also did a stunt up to 1.2315 a little earlier when the rest of the market fell. Just goes to show the superiority of 6E EuroFX.
:)

edit2: finally b/e with +9 pips and commissions also around 8-9 pips. :p
What a rollercoaster! I was negative almost 30 pips at one point, but jumped back in again.
The market is so action-paced that it's extremely easy to get whipped into creamy heaven if you get a wrong entry. Then - exiting with profits - and quickly - makes all the difference. I probably should have let some of my entries go a little longer, but it's tough if they start going 5-10 pips negative .. and then you look at the equity. But using a bigger hammer helps some time when you "know" you're right.

edit3: Markets seems to have cooled a little - and so do I need to do. :D
The turnaround came with better ranges on the trading - where it stopped sliding to lower levels - and then upped size a little. I made a lot (!) of R/Ts to get here though: 25 R/Ts !! And that was in a very short time -- talk about overtrading, but with all the different shakes taking place, it just had to go that way. At least I know to stop when ahead (almost).
 
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