Ag trade ideas

[TraDaToR]

Long Dec/ Short Jan soymeal @ 1.

I don't really like the technical configuration of the soymeal spread, but whatever...

Out @ 0.8 for a small loss/ scratch. Spot october is dropping.

 

[TraDaToR]

Anybody thinking about a Long soyoil/ Short Soymeal spread here?

- Extremely low oïl value in the crush
- Palm oïl rallying + El Nino
- Soyoil forming something like a triple bottom
- Soymeal curve getting bearish

 

[Rachmaninov]

I have this trade in mind for 1 year but I dont want to take it :
- Because soyoil contango is still bigger than soymeal
- Current beainoil price low compared to crude
- A shift of higher and high soymeal in the soycrush for a very long time (beans demand is more driven by meal than oil)

 

[TraDaToR]

Agree. Except bean oil has perpetually more of a contango structure compared to meal. It's just that oil is easily storable compared to meal which is perishable.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short Dec/Feb/Apr Hogs butterfly @ -0.825.
...

Out @ 1.200. It is the 3rd spread that just implodes in my face since I came back from vacation...

 

[Rachmaninov]

Agree. Except bean oil has perpetually more of a contango structure compared to meal. It's just that oil is easily storable compared to meal which is perishable.

Yes but it also imply than some one long soyoil / short soymeal has lost a lot ! Its almost a trade to be long soymeal/short soyoil.

 

[TraDaToR]

Vyki, I am this you on the long Dec/Short Mar Minny wheat @ -17.5.

Out the other half @ -12.5

 

[justrading]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-indonesia-s-coffee-harvest-10-after-record

 

[i960]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-indonesia-s-coffee-harvest-10-after-record

I have a whole host of Twitter accounts and other things I follow coffee related but here's some useful daily links:

http://blog.pricegroup.com
http://drwakefield.com/reports
http://www.iandmsmith.com/news-headlines/coffee-market-reports

I'm predominantly a technical trader but I try to read fundamental news on a daily basis and attempt to deduce how that may play into things.

Also definitely read the monthly ICE Softs Fast Facts which is on the KC spec page.

The pros are absolutely advantaged over us small guys but any little thing helps IMO.

 

[i960]

I'd also add that if you're interested in KC that you follow BRLUSD or Real related news.

For Robusta, VNDUSD or Dong related news (make your jokes now). I got fucked on a decent Robusta long due to Dong devaluation some weeks back.

DX strength continues to crush these things (producers selling more due to an advantageous currency divergence) and it'll be interesting to see how that plays into other fundamental issues like actual production and harvest.