Ag trade ideas

[Rachmaninov]

long OCT15/short DEC15 (HE/LE)

 

[TraDaToR]

long OCT15/short DEC15 (HE/LE)

Just to be sure, Long hogs/ Short Cattle? Any specific relative value reason other than their late trends?

 

[Rachmaninov]

My bad, its HE ! On good seasonality and last expiryes moves !

 

[TraDaToR]

Beware that Oct > cash index...

 

[TraDaToR]

Liquidated Half MW Dec/Mar @ -13.75 before grains stocks but since expectations are already super bearish, I might keep half.

Short Apr/Jun/Aug Cattle fly @ 5.550. Didn't like the way I entered. I had to chase it for one week.

 

[Rachmaninov]

Beware that Oct > cash index...

Where do you find the cash index ? Any research on the effet of cash index future market ?
On Euronext and on near expiries, futures tend to converge to the cash market !

 

[TraDaToR]

DTN. CME Lean Hogs Index.Exactly, which is why you should be aware that cash and Oct will converge at expiration. It is early now, but in the last few days it has an important influence on price. More than usual the cash price fills the gap though...

 

[Rachmaninov]

You mean, that most of the time the future market is leading the cash market ?

 

[TraDaToR]

Kind of. You have to check the lean hogs chapter in the CME rulebook. The index is an average of cash prices of the previous 2 days if I am right.

 

[TraDaToR]

Short Nov/ Long Jan Beans @ -4.5. Doubling my exposure to soybeans. Good crop condition now + strong seasonality + A little too much reassuring talk about chinese demand not being impacted.

Out @ -1.75.

That was a bad day for sure.