If you look for a long exposure, I would say wait for a due correction.
Ag trade ideas
- Thread starter TraDaToR
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If you look for a long exposure, I would say wait for a due correction.
TraD:
Long KWZ/ZWZ @ -8.5. The unusual discount is even making headlines in Agrimoney.
I went long that spread for a customer. about 2 weeks ago. It was painful there for a while. Now, it's recovered some. Kind of want to get out.
Long KWZ/ZWZ @ -8.5. The unusual discount is even making headlines in Agrimoney.
I went long that spread for a customer. about 2 weeks ago. It was painful there for a while. Now, it's recovered some. Kind of want to get out.
I think it definitely has more chance to go to 0 than much lower
The dryness concerns for winter wheat plantings are not just Australia and Russia now but also HRS states in the US. I know it should translate in higher Jul16 HRS instead of Dec15 but managed money doesn't give a shit about logic. And there is still a bit of seasonality in October.
Here is what made me pull the trigger:
"The extent of the dryness in hard red winter wheat-growing regions was "not a large shock at this point of the year", when the growing season has a long way to go, an analyst at a major US broker told Agrimoney.com.
"But in parts such as south west Kansas, and parts of Colorado, it does look like farmers are dealing with pretty dry soils," supporting an opportunity for traders to close the unusually large discount of hard red winter wheat futures to soft red winter wheat ones.
Indeed, many investors are finding this discount, which set a closing high of $0.13 ½ a bushel on Monday, "really hard to understand", given the higher quality of hard red winter wheat, the analyst said.
"OK, people on the global market are not breaking down the door to buy our hard wheat, but they are not exactly clamouring for our soft wheat either."
The analyst forecast Kansas City wheat futures outperforming Chicago ones over the next few months, to bring the gap between the two types back to "somewhere near a mean level", seen as a premium to hard wheat of about $0.15-0.20 a bushel."
The dryness concerns for winter wheat plantings are not just Australia and Russia now but also HRS states in the US. I know it should translate in higher Jul16 HRS instead of Dec15 but managed money doesn't give a shit about logic. And there is still a bit of seasonality in October.
Here is what made me pull the trigger:
"The extent of the dryness in hard red winter wheat-growing regions was "not a large shock at this point of the year", when the growing season has a long way to go, an analyst at a major US broker told Agrimoney.com.
"But in parts such as south west Kansas, and parts of Colorado, it does look like farmers are dealing with pretty dry soils," supporting an opportunity for traders to close the unusually large discount of hard red winter wheat futures to soft red winter wheat ones.
Indeed, many investors are finding this discount, which set a closing high of $0.13 ½ a bushel on Monday, "really hard to understand", given the higher quality of hard red winter wheat, the analyst said.
"OK, people on the global market are not breaking down the door to buy our hard wheat, but they are not exactly clamouring for our soft wheat either."
The analyst forecast Kansas City wheat futures outperforming Chicago ones over the next few months, to bring the gap between the two types back to "somewhere near a mean level", seen as a premium to hard wheat of about $0.15-0.20 a bushel."
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i asked my broker some time ago similar question:
-Why does the uncertainty of new crop planting is more bullish for old crop futures then a new crop futures?
-It would be technically bullish both crops but if the market thinks new crop supply is at risk, then the old becomes much more valuable because guys who are waiting on old crop to end to buy cheaper new crop may buy sooner to get their supply. In bullish markets, the front months usually perform better
Closed out a bunch of $JO Oct 20 and 21 calls for a nice chunk of change. Still holding long KCZ15 (from 1.18) and RCX15 (from 1561, technical trade which worked out well), and a shit ton of $JO March calls 20-28 (financed by selling 19/20 strike puts). KCK16-KCH16 is going against me about 30 cents - might ditch it, not having a lot of luck with spreads these days honestly.
IMO: Something everyone should have glued up on their screens right now is DX futures.
IMO: Something everyone should have glued up on their screens right now is DX futures.