A message to some day traders.

Amahrix said:
When the very definition of Technical Analysis is: financial analysis that uses patterns in market data to identify trends and make predictions.
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Classic TA makes no references to 'predicting' price movements as written about by the founders, in fact they make that very loud in clear in their books. I never use the term 'predicting' with TA & don't know of any trader that is a practitioner of it that does.

TA bashers are always dogmatic with their opinions & misinformed to what it is. Contempt prior to investigation is not very intelligent.

Long & decent description of TA, the word 'predict' does not appear even one time!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp
 
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comagnum said:
Classic TA makes no references to 'predicting' price movements as written about by the founders. I never use the term 'predicting' with TA & don't know of any trader that is a practitioner of it that does.

TA bashers are always dogmatic with their opinions & misinformed to what it is. Contempt prior to investigation is what fools do.

Long & decent description of TA, the word 'predict' does not appear even one time!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp
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same idea.

I use TA and then react to the market.
But some people use TA and predict the market.
 
comagnum said:
Classic TA makes no references to 'predicting' price movements as written about by the founders. I never use the term 'predicting' with TA & don't know of any trader that is a practitioner of it that does.

TA bashers are always dogmatic with their opinions & misinformed to what it is.

Long & decent description of TA, the word 'predict' does not appear even one time!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/technicalanalysis.asp
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"Technical analysis attempts to forecast the price movement of virtually any tradable instrument"

"Technical analysts have also developed numerous types of trading systems to help them forecast..."

"Fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the major schools of thought when it comes to approaching the markets, are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Both methods are used for researching and forecasting future trends in stock prices,.."

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Tomato, tomatoe.

Kindly, if I may ask, provide me an example of how you use TA. If not, that's ok. I am just asking if you may. I'd like to understand you more and where you are coming from.
 
Amahrix said:
I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.
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In the documentary “The Great Hack”, they trace the arc of Cambridge Analytica’s use of Facebook data and the shift from the commercial use of targeting ads to a political one.
Facebook has ~ 5000 data points on any given user and that user can be categorized as “fixed” or “persuadable.”
The newsfeed can then be programmed to further reinforce the individual’s echo chamber.

You started a thread with a particular theme which further reinforces your own echo chamber and quite literally a prison of your own mind via the beliefs you have chosen based on opinion interpreted as fact.

Congrats!

Welcome to the world of your own making.
 
Sprout said:
In the documentary “The Great Hack”, they trace the arc of Cambridge Analytica’s use of Facebook data and the shift from the commercial use of targeting ads to a political one.
Facebook has ~ 5000 data points on any given user and that user can be categorized as “fixed” or “persuadable.”
The newsfeed can then be programmed to further reinforce the individual’s echo chamber.

You started a thread with a particular theme which further reinforces your own echo chamber and quite literally a prison of your own mind via the beliefs you have chosen based on opinion interpreted as fact.

Congrats!

Welcome to the world of your own making.
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Thx
 
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Amahrix said:
Those are directly from your link buddy.
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I accidentally hit the keyboard - ooops.

With forecasting you are looking at new data constantly as it is received & will adjust accordingly (dynamic).

When you predict you are attempting to make a static guess as to what will happen in the future.

I sure never use the term forecast & here again don't know of any serious practitioner of classic TA that does. Although that term 'forecasting' does appear in some TA books.

A lot of retail traders do make predictions - I sure don't.
 
comagnum said:
I accidentally hit the keyboard - ooops.

With forecasting you are looking at new data constantly as it is received & will adjust accordingly (dynamic).

When you predict you are attempting to make a static guess as to what will happen in the future.

I sure never use the term forecast & here again don't know of any serious practitioner of classic TA that does. Although it does appear in some books.

A lot of retail traders do make predictions - I sure don't.
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To add on, prediction and forecasting are attempts to create a static state of an inherent dynamic flow of market information.

A better frame of reference would be the use of anticipation.

One can know thing by knowing all that it is not.
 
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