A message to some day traders.

A

Amahrix

I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.
 
Peter10 said:
I have been Daytrading futures for some years now using only Techincal analysis. I am up by 7% (average ) every month and the worst drawdown is around -13%.... Am i also Lucky or Is this a coincidence?
More...


“Data is either randomly constructed arrangement or a precisely intended message.”- Nassim Taleb Fooled by Randomness.

What do you believe Peter? Tell me. Waiting.


“We have been reading lengthy and complex messages in just about any manifestation of nature that presents jaggedness (such as the palm of a hand, the residues at the bottom of Turkish coffee cups, etc.) (ill paraphrase and add stars to the list). Armed with home supercomputers and chained processors, and helped by complexity and “chaos” theories, the scientists, semi scientists, and pseudo scientists will be able to find portents. “ Nassim Taleb Fooled by Randomness.
 
Peter10 said:
I have been Daytrading futures for some years now using only Techincal analysis. I am up by 7% (average ) every month and the worst drawdown is around -13%.... Am i also Lucky or Is this a coincidence?
More...
Btw the answer is.... much much much much much much much more luck than you think.

Post here on year 10 if you can survive..............


Edit: Frankly, I actually believe, borderline know, that it’s 99.9% chance.
 
Peter10 said:
Market Data makes you understand market behavior... It can help you predict the next movement with reasonable accuracy....
More...

So you take the deterministic point of view Peter... you believe Data(information that has occurred in the past, embeds a precise message that you will then decipher and predict the future with this embedded information in the past). Do you know how stupid this sounds?

Refer to... Problem of Induction.... orrrr earthquakes, can you predict to me when the fault line in California will quake from its past data? Isn’t the information embedded into the data? Because you do believe data embeds information about the future sooooo...

Market behavior is collective human being behavior. It is unpredictable, just like the behavior of an individual human being is unpredictable. Now you want to predict a collection of them in markets...............and you’re good at that? You’re kidding yourself.

I personally don’t believe you can predict anything with truth, technical analysis is pseudoscience at the core. how do you fool yourself into thinking your success is a result of your precision prediction making skills of groups of human behavior. Are you god and I don’t know it?
 
Amahrix said:
I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.
More...


"Any fool can criticize, complain, and condemn- and most fools do"
- Dale Carnegie

You've made a huge assumption that is entirely incorrect.

Amahrix said:
Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random.
More...

Why are you assuming they are random? Are you among those who think charts that span several years are not random, but shorter term charts are?

A system is no more than the sum of its parts. Therefore a long term system composed of short term random elements will also be random. If you think the market is "random" in the short term but "ordered" in the long term you lack understanding is basic math concepts.

Conversely, if long term charts have order, then it MUST be true that short term charts must have an order as well. The short term order may be harder to recognize, but it's still there.

By the way, if you assume the market as a whole is random, there you shouldn't be in the market in any time frame as there wouldn't be any reason for you to think the market will continue to move up over the long term.

Next, to just make a proclamation that ALL traders must be fooling themselves based on YOUR opinion is the height of ignorance/arrogance.

There are numerous examples of people who are long term successful at trading, from corporations like Renaissance, to individuals. To ignore the reality of those who are obviously succeeding is what a fool does.

If you don't believe in trading, then you certainly shouldn't do it. It's an endeavor very few are able to do well.

But to just attack traders as "fools" because you couldn't figure it out says more about YOU than any trader.
 
soulfire said:
"Any fool can criticize, complain, and condemn- and most fools do"
- Dale Carnegie

You've made a huge assumption that is entirely incorrect.



Why are you assuming they are random? Are you among those who think charts that span several years are not random, but shorter term charts are?

A system is no more than the sum of its parts. Therefore a long term system composed of short term random elements will also be random. If you think the market is "random" in the short term but "ordered" in the long term you lack understanding is basic math concepts.

Conversely, if long term charts have order, then it MUST be true that short term charts must have an order as well. The short term order may be harder to recognize, but it's still there.

By the way, if you assume the market as a whole is random, there you shouldn't be in the market in any time frame as there wouldn't be any reason for you to think the market will continue to move up over the long term.

Next, to just make a proclamation that ALL traders must be fooling themselves based on YOUR opinion is the height of ignorance/arrogance.

There are numerous examples of people who are long term successful at trading, from corporations like Renaissance, to individuals. To ignore the reality of those who are obviously succeeding is what a fool does.

If you don't believe in trading, then you certainly shouldn't do it. It's an endeavor very few are able to do well.

But to just attack traders as "fools" because you couldn't figure it out says more about YOU than any trader.
More...

There is soooooo much wrong with this that I’ll have to leave it for the morning.

Edit: I just read this again and wow... it is much much more wrong than I previously thought. Can’t wait to tackle it tomorrow, God willing.
 
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