A message to some day traders.

Amahrix said:
Market behavior is collective human being behavior. It is unpredictable, just like the behavior of an individual human being is unpredictable. Now you want to predict a collection of them in markets...............and you’re good at that? You’re kidding yourself.
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Wrong... Human Behaviour are soooo Predictable....
 
Peter10 said:
Wrong... Human Behaviour are soooo Predictable....
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F*cking idiot... do you know many suicide stories where everyone thought the suicidal person was happy and randomly find out that he committed suicide and everyone was shocked because every time they saw him he was smiling and happy and everyone is confused that he could do that... even those closest to him.

These types of examples PROVE that you’re sooooooooo damn wrong to believe data has embedded information. You’re soooo wrong. Why are you fooling yourself man. Wtf. I’m genuinely shocked you people fall for this sh*t. I get it, I’m being rude but like dude... seriously? Human behavior is predictable, really......?

I really need you to think critically and question yourself before responding to me again if your arrogance has exceeded your true level of knowledge and if so, which I believe it has, close the gap.

Actually on 2nd thought I don’t think your arrogant at all. I think you’re prolly a really dope nice guy that’s just Fooled.. but then again maybe cuz arrogance idk

Edit: nope, your arrogant. Concluded. Paradoxically tho, I sound more arrogant. But mine is justified :p
 
@Peter10 now that I’ve empirically proven to you that human behavior is not predictable (the happy man who ended up committing suicide outta the blue to everyone’s shock), you need to either pick 1) that you are a determinist that believes data carries embedded information of the future, in this case short term market data, which is simply a collection of individual humans 2) that data is random and you’re trading Randomness

So.. is data random or does it carry embedded information of the future that you and some other voodoo pattern seekers(which together trade on self-fulfilling prophecies) only have the privilege of getting access to and profiting?
 
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soulfire said:
"Any fool can criticize, complain, and condemn- and most fools do"
- Dale Carnegie

You've made a huge assumption that is entirely incorrect.



Why are you assuming they are random? Are you among those who think charts that span several years are not random, but shorter term charts are?

A system is no more than the sum of its parts. Therefore a long term system composed of short term random elements will also be random. If you think the market is "random" in the short term but "ordered" in the long term you lack understanding is basic math concepts.

Conversely, if long term charts have order, then it MUST be true that short term charts must have an order as well. The short term order may be harder to recognize, but it's still there.

By the way, if you assume the market as a whole is random, there you shouldn't be in the market in any time frame as there wouldn't be any reason for you to think the market will continue to move up over the long term.

Next, to just make a proclamation that ALL traders must be fooling themselves based on YOUR opinion is the height of ignorance/arrogance.

There are numerous examples of people who are long term successful at trading, from corporations like Renaissance, to individuals. To ignore the reality of those who are obviously succeeding is what a fool does.

If you don't believe in trading, then you certainly shouldn't do it. It's an endeavor very few are able to do well.

But to just attack traders as "fools" because you couldn't figure it out says more about YOU than any trader.
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1) They’re random because they do not embed information about the future. If it did, we would be able to actually predict future innovations from past data because the information would be embedded in them but that’s not what innovations are, are they? And that’s not what data provides, does it? Let me ask you, can you predict the behavior of a single human being through a period of time, if you look at this human being for 5 minutes, can you predict what he will do in the next 5 minutes? But if you look at this human being for 5 years, will it become easier to predict what he will do in the next 5 years in this case? I want you to test this empirically then get back to me. Think about it.... now do you understand or NO? NEWSFLASH: MARKETS ARE A COLLECTIVE OF THESE UNPREDICTABLE LITTLE THINGS WE CALL HUMANS, NOW THAT YOU REALIZE YOU CANT PREDICT ONE, HOW CAN YOU SAY YOU CAN PREDICT A GROUP. LET ME TAKE THIS FURTHER ESPECIALLY WHEN PARETO LAWS(power laws) IN WHO HOLDS THE MONEY, CONTROLS THE DIRECTION OF BELIEF/TREND ETC OF THE GROUP AND THE REST OF THE SHEEPS FOLLOW. So you’re not predicting the behavior of the majority of the group, that is irrelevant. You’re going to have to predict the behavior of those that can move the groups a certain direction, and that person can behave very spontaneously. If this person randomly losses confidence, he will sell his load, and the sheep will follow right behind him, out of fear. Example: George Soros breaking the Bank of England.

TLDR: Humans are unpredictable individually and especially in groups and especially especially if it involves money because it is tied to confidence and we lose confidence randomly, it’s not embedded in data when we will lose this. I don’t wake up in the morning and proclaim that I will lose confidence at 5:00pm.... it... just... happens... kinda outta nowhere. Or is my heavier from 9:00am to 4:59pm embed information that I’ll lose confidence at 5:00pm?

2) “a system is no more than a sum of the parts” buddy, if you had all the information and knowledge of the parts of the system and it’s movements, momentum and speed, like an All-Knowing God, then you can go predict. In reality, you’re wrong and you can’t behave in a way where you think past data shows info about future.... you’ll hit ruin.

3) Traders, speculators, investors all trade every day... they trade daily and each day is different. The movement of a stock in the very short term such as 1 day... CONTAINS NO INFORMATION, but a 1 year chart will contain some information, perhaps 50% signal. The daily news..... if I look at the news every 30 days, versus daily, I’ll get more signal than noise... this is empirically true. Try it.... I go nuts if I look at every headline per day and try to process that and judge what’s happening in the world, but if I go seek that information every 3 months, I’ll have more signal because the real news will stick around and the noise will wash away and I can understand better what’s happening.....are you even human bro?

4) no opinion; everything I’ve said is empirically true. You must not be a human or if you are... you lost your senses and need to fast to regain them (my method)

5) Regarding “numerous people who are successful at this trading etc” .......... no, survivorship bias. Go look at the graveyard and compare that to the successes then tell me. The few that get it... Renaissance & Bridgewater and some others understand the limits of knowledge, are protected against ruin, and don’t day trade based on technical indicators that everyone on elitetraders use. Look at Bridgewater all weather fund... here is Ray Dalio making a damn fund that says “I don’t know what the weather will be so I’ll build my house to withstand all climates”... someone who knows that he doesn’t know. All he needs to do is survive and he will win... he understands this. Not you.

6) I do believe in trading, I’m a trader, but I make zero predictions in my strategy. Absolutely ZERO. because I know I don’t really know. I use survival heuristics to protect myself against ruin and I take my chances in just about everything the market has to offer.

Even if markets were like a machine with parts, it has sooo many moving parts with multiplicative effects that it is impossible for a human to predict them given all the data available to them today in the world. Back to my original post, most day traders (99.9%>) are winning because they’re much much much much much much much more lucky than they think. Most day traders (99.9%>) lose money. Remember: survivorship bias.
 
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You’re mistaking skills for luck.

You’re mistaking determinism for Randomness.

You’re mistaking certainty for probability.

You’re mistaking knowledge/certitude for conjecture/belief.

You’re mistaking reality for Theory.

You’re mistaking Causality/law for coincidence.

You’re mistaking the skilled investor for a lucky idiot.

You’re mistaking market outperformance for survivorship bias.

You’re mistaking return for volatility.

You’re mistaking a deterministic variable for a stochastic variable.

You’re mistaking signal for noise.

You’re mistaking physical probability for epistemically probability.

You’re mistaking deductive reasoning with inductive reasoning.

Prologue Page xlv Fooled by Randomness Nassim taleb, free online I believe. Just google search.

Cmon man..... I couldn’t have said it any better hence why I just put that up
 
I think you are either coming off a late bender or have been reading way to much Nassim Taleb tweets.

I am not too sure about you, but we mortals only have access to historical data. Yes, the data is usually noise, but it is possible to find a signal.

If you are a good forecaster, your expected value will be positive even though many random events (noise) will happen.
 
Amahrix said:
I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.
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Instead of using all these words and this energy, why not say what you really wanted to say...."I'm posting this because I feel like creating a shitstorm".
 
TheBigShort said:
I think you are either coming off a late bender or have been reading way to much Nassim Taleb tweets.

I am not too sure about you, but we mortals only have access to historical data. Yes, the data is usually noise, but it is possible to find a signal.

If you are a good forecaster, your expected value will be positive even though many random events (noise) will happen.
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You know.. I notice when people don’t have nothing to say but want to say something (for whatever reason) they usually leave a comment exactly the way you left yours.

“You’re reading too much Nassim maaaaannnn” etc etc as a way to perhaps discredit, or make less important, or reduce the emotional impact of truth bombs by indirectly or directly implying I’m a nut job cult follower of sorts.

So useless.

Also don’t strawman me. Its one thing to look at historical data that runs many many many years and even decades, than a 1 hour, 1 day, 7 day chart and try to extrapolate data and use this as a means for good forecasting.

And yea it’s late and I wanna have some fun so that’s really why I’m out here sacrificing myself to get the truth out.
 
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