YM Traders

Quote from monarc:

So you mean to say that you do not backtest your strategy before implementing it ???UMM...thats intersting...Moreover, where have I said that that I am using this strategy. I am just showing your the backtest results of 9:30 reversals.....

read the posts before you speak... [/B]
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Monarc....

Pay no mind to the being behind the porgie persona. Porgie is shall we say eccentric.... porgie uses a 100% accurate system, and has several other 90%+ systems on the shelf. And porgie never gives members a real-time signal, afraid us doomed for failure traders will crack the system based on the call. To be fair, from time to time porgie posts DO contain useful tidbits.

BTW: I speak of porgie as a being instead of he or she because depending on the thread, porgie will be male or female, as porgie sees fit.

Cheers,

Osorico
 
osorico,

I apologized to monarc.........porgie is always the hooking bull if that tells u anything about gender.........all this stuff is for fun here........i was coming your way and liked ur trading until u told me to " you" in chat room when i very nicely pointed out a bad entry you made and i told you the warning signal against you when you entered trade and lost a few and then made a big bunch and you reacted with a vulgar remark.......instead of a more mature respectful comment which i always addressed you with to this very post....although i think you are coolweb or buzz.....no offense intended just an observation.....i have nothing worth giving to others.........just trying to help volente pump this thing to 1000 posts.........
 
Quote from porgie:

osorico,

I apologized to monarc.........porgie is always the hooking bull if that tells u anything about gender.........all this stuff is for fun here........i was coming your way and liked ur trading until u told me to " you" in chat room when i very nicely pointed out a bad entry you made and i told you the warning signal against you when you entered trade and lost a few and then made a big bunch and you reacted with a vulgar remark.......instead of a more mature respectful comment which i always addressed you with to this very post....although i think you are coolweb or buzz.....no offense intended just an observation.....i have nothing worth giving to others.........just trying to help volente pump this thing to 1000 posts.........
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hey porgie...

A while back one evening there were 4 or 5 of us in chat... porgie, volente, osorico, coolweb, and I think JMMowery. How can I be coolweb??
EDIT: I met MrMarcus that nite so maybe there were 6 of us.

As for buzz, all I can say is thank you. AFAIK, buzz is a successful trader, from England I think. And in fact, during a real-time chat session buzz actually gave me and several others "lessons" about scalping. I even saved a link to the broker he uses... buzz was pleased with the platform for scalping purposes. Since you weren't there I understand its futile to say Im not buzz, but Im not buzz.

Regardless...
Please donate some of your trading profits to stem-cell research.

Osorico [ROFLMAO]
 
Quote from monarc:/baifriend

Murray,

I was not trying to prove anything here. I just thought of backtesting the 9:30 reversal strategy. THe 2005 DEC contract was hugely profitable as it was shown in the excel sheet. I think it was around 70 points. I know it is NOT big, but comparitvely for a mechanical strategy, I think it is OK. There was only ONE contract which made losses with this strategy.

I do believe that with some modifications to the strategy, we can be profitable. The excel sheet also shows the number of times the long and short stopped out. If you see that out of 63 days in each contract, there were no more than 20 days wherein the stops were hit. Infact, some of the contracts had only 8 days where stops were hit.

I am almost done with subjecting this to a Genetic Algorithm and picking up the right Standard Deviation threshold, Long Profit number and short profit numbers and STOP Loss numbers that would maximize the profits for each contract.

Also, I do have a way to quantify randomness as was suggested by another member here.

Porgie: I am long on YM from 11180. Up by 50 points already....
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=============
Thats fine Monarc;
YM & ES move similiar.

Porgie, sounds like you are hinting you dont want to trade NQ this time. fine.:cool:
 
da 10/30 reversal happens in stocks as well...always been like that [sometimes is at 9/30]; liquidation and new flow causes it most of da time and it is more clear when a stock is reactin' to earnings afer-h report....perfect entry point.

enjoy
 
I have used the 1030et reversal in ES for a long time now, even used it back when i did mostly US (bonds) on the phone before electronic futures trading got up and flying.

I have other tactics before the 1030 et time frame to use, but if the mkt is just bouncing around willy nilly for the first hour and still feel i want in then i either use the first hour breakout OR the 1030 et reversal. There really is no need to care about reasons why it might happen, who cares? Small traders are last to find out reasons anyway.

Some traders think they need a/any reason for a trade when throwing darts. I gave up on reasons after i decided that TA works and works best when the trader keeps silly reasons out of the equation.

"KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID".....that works. Always has--- Always will......:)

PS, BITstream says it is a perfect entry point...I disagree. there is no such thing as a perfect entry point. That is just using the hope rope. Sorry bit, just my experienced opinion...:D
 
Quote from volente_00:

So monarc, what is your conclusion about my 10:30 reversal trade strategy ?
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volente: if you see my plots, it is clear that you would have won 60 points in 2006 March contract and 70.25 points in 2005 DEC if you just placed the orders in the reverse direction of the price movement and if the standard deviation of the price series is greater than certain threshold. BUT the strategy did poorly if you go far back. You can see in the excel sheet. I Dont remember.

Also the numbers are based on profit targets of 2.5 points and stop losses of 4. If you want me to run the program again with different profit targets or stop losses let me know. The code is already written. The backtesting algorithm is self written..No Commercial software used and I assume that data from www.anfutures.com is CORRECT. Ofcourse, I did check my results even visually so I know my program works.


If you remove the standard deviation criterion, then you reduce your profits by about 35%......

If you add another criterion, which I am not willing to discuss as yet, You can improve even more.....This criterion has roots in academics...

Also, if you use genetic algorithms, you can arrive at the right set of parameters that will maximize the profits. Those results will be posted next.
 
osorico,

there is only one coolweb and one buzz.........i think they both are in the same hog trough.......money is their life......buzz and his stuff is okay........just same old re-hashed stuff that all of the recyclers know already........your trading was not so bad from what little i saw of it.........you have what porgie lacked .........courage to pull the trigger......trust me i have pulled it a bunch.....just some things happened to change my direction for awhile......awhile is over now..........porgie cocked and primed.......i only go where the price is going.....just that simple........i only like the YM for now.......actually i liked your trading but not your attitude........buzz as i remember was counter trend with stops that were nice and huge........bad reward/risk...................... by the way, u should have hung on to mr. marcus........he is a jewel......nice man and very honest........knows of which he speaks in this business.......
 
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