WTF ? Cant believe market is going up like this !!!

[LEAPup]

Quote from EliteThink:

I bet Obama wishes today's report came out last Friday...

No doubt about it!!!

 

[m22au]

Quote from my7tvette:

You sound like me in '06-'07. I started liquidating all my long stock "investments" in IRA/brokerage accounts somewhere during that time frame, probably 15-20% from the top. Then I just stewed as I watched the market grind up for weeks at a time.

I know that it is very very dangerous to say "this time it's different"

but ......

I think this time it is different. Bernanke was as clear as a Federal Reserve Chairman can be regarding targetting stock prices in this article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR2010110307372.html?hpid=topnews

 

[kashirin]

Quote from m22au:

I know that it is very very dangerous to say "this time it's different"

but ......

I think this time it is different. Bernanke was as clear as a Federal Reserve Chairman can be regarding targetting stock prices in this article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR2010110307372.html?hpid=topnews

the only problem is Bernanke was not a single time right about anything
in addition if oil goes above $100 Bernanke has huge chance to be fired

not a single time in a history ' this time it's different' worked.

the current formaula quite simple
wealth effect -> overconsumption ->bust
in case of housing it was 5 years


now they are trying to repeat it with stocks
ok, we might reach all time highs by the spring but it will be huge bust no matter what with a year

Do you think Bernanke learns anything from his past mistakes? No

so how can it be different

 

[retaildaytrader]

I have come to Elitetrader to announce the top is now in. We have topped. The next low will be in March of next year. I am putting my reputation on the line this post. The next recession will start in January. The recovery has ended.

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

You are trading with a clear bias. Why is it puzzling that the market is going up? The recession ended, we have had 18 months of positive GDP growth, employment is now heading back up, corporate profits have been repeatedly beating expectations, and price/earnings ratios on many blue chip stocks are either cheap or moderately valued (e.g. 12-15 times earnings, with earnings growing at a nice clip). Name me one bull market after a major bear/crash that only lasted 18 months? Normal bull market cycles are 3-5 years. The Fed has just announced a policy of debasing the dollar, which is also bullish for somewhat inflation-hedged assets like stocks. What is so irrational about the market at 1215, given those fundamentals? It is still off 23% from 3 years ago, and down over 20% from its level 10 whole years ago.

I see nothing in your post that makes a robust case that prices are clearly overvalued. Why do you think there has to be noticeable pullbacks to give you an easy chance to get long? Don't you know that bull markets often grind higher without giving easy pullback entry points? Have you heard the term "a bull market climbs a wall of worry"?

 

[shortie]

Quote from zanek:

...
I'd love to do more swing trading, but I'm also wondering when the rug will be pulled out and we have a massive freefall.

This all seems really effing crazy how much its manipulated. I'm still on the sidelines in amazement

Argh, maybe I should just shutup and trade with all this free Fed money being dumped into the system

they won't pull the rug, not yet. the way it works is they will wait until you bet your farm and go long. then they will pull the rug. there is nothing you can do really. you can try to be patient, fight your desire to place a trade but it is all useless. the great fake bull market will manage to tempt you.

your best strategy is to let us know the moment you bet the farm. at least you will still have friends on ET after it is over.

 

[Scataphagos]

Quote from kashirin:

"... now they are trying to repeat it with stocks
ok, we might reach all time highs by the spring but it will be huge bust no matter what with a year

Last time we had a stock market bubble was about 10 years ago. Does Bernanke think enough time has passed that people have forgotten about it... enough time that it will yet "work again"?

 

[m22au]

Quote from kashirin:

the only problem is Bernanke was not a single time right about anything
in addition if oil goes above $100 Bernanke has huge chance to be fired

not a single time in a history ' this time it's different' worked.

the current formaula quite simple
wealth effect -> overconsumption ->bust
in case of housing it was 5 years


now they are trying to repeat it with stocks
ok, we might reach all time highs by the spring but it will be huge bust no matter what with a year

Do you think Bernanke learns anything from his past mistakes? No

so how can it be different

It could be different because I infer from the FOMC statement and WaPo article that the Fed will provide additional stimulus if stock prices fall by a noticeable amount.

I am unaware of another example of a central bank, especially the US central bank, of publicly acknowledging their desire for higher stock prices, and trying to reach that objective through QE.

 

[limitdown]

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Zerohedge are just economically illiterate permabears who are frustrated that their $10k E-trade account blew up by being short all the way from the 2009 lows with no stop. They have been consistently bearish with no flexibility or risk control, all the way up. A bull market could last 10 years, go up 300%, and smack them in the face with a wet kipper and they still wouldn't recognise it.

not to pick on your comment,

ok, to pick on your comment (take with a grain of salt)

we use "recognize" in America,

generally those who speak English in other countries use "recognise"

 

[kashirin]

Quote from m22au:

It could be different because I infer from the FOMC statement and WaPo article that the Fed will provide additional stimulus if stock prices fall by a noticeable amount.

I am unaware of another example of a central bank, especially the US central bank, of publicly acknowledging their desire for higher stock prices, and trying to reach that objective through QE.

Ok, US central bank publicly ackowledge they want house price to go up and they try to reach it with QE
so what?

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from kashirin:

the only problem is Bernanke was not a single time right about anything
in addition if oil goes above $100 Bernanke has huge chance to be fired

not a single time in a history ' this time it's different' worked.

the current formaula quite simple
wealth effect -> overconsumption ->bust
in case of housing it was 5 years


now they are trying to repeat it with stocks
ok, we might reach all time highs by the spring but it will be huge bust no matter what with a year

Do you think Bernanke learns anything from his past mistakes? No

so how can it be different

Yeah, I wouldn't put too much confidence in a "Bernanke put" either. Traders considered him a joke in 2008, along with non-Fed policies like "no shorting financial stocks for XX days," etc. Regardless of what policymakers think they can do, the market will find a way out and a way down eventually.

I like to call this the Jurassic Market because chaos can slip through the smallest cracks and snowball into something no one is expecting. Bernanke's amusement park won't be amusing for too much longer.